I’ve been stressing so hard over midterms, particularly my security markets midterm, that my immune system forgot to do its job and now I’ve caught the college kid cold that’s been going around since the beginning of this week. Go to any campus library during midterms and you are sure to find tables filled with Kleenex and Airbourne. It’s not really surprising I’m sick-I live with three girls who share everything from drinking glasses to mascara. But normally I pride myself on my super immune system and smirk while my friends are gargling salt water. But not this time, ohhhh no. Between the stress, my car getting broken into, work, homework, my antibodies just couldn’t keep up. Could be worse. I mean Halloween could be on a Monday. How excited are you for tomorrow? I can’t wait.
The stock market has been pretty bi-polar this week. Up and down, up and down. We could call it a roller coaster of love, but I think this is the kinda ride that makes more people want to puke than anything. Stocks are up this morning after a GDP reports showed that consumers contracted less than expected last quarter and investors are feeling more upbeat after the Fed decided to cut rates again.
Lot of company’s have been posting losses lately, and employee cuts. Motorola (MOT) posted over $800 million in operating losses, American Express is cutting 7000 jobs..and the list goes on. Outlook is dismal to say the least.
Where the outlook is less disamal is at PredictWallStreet! They have five forecasts today and four of them are forecasted to close up. I don’t know what Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) or Corning, Inc. (GLW) does so I wont pretend I do but they are forecasted to close down and up, respectively.
Pfizer (PFE) is forecasted to close up today. I don’t know much about this company other than that they develop prescription medicine and that even in time’s of a recession, there is one thing people can’t afford to not buy and that is there medicine. It’s not just something you can really skimp on when money is tight. Sentiment for PFE is pretty neutral, although it does look like it could be becoming more bullish soon. They company currently has $26 million in cash flows, something most advisers are telling investors to look to first when picking companies in times like these, and there dividend yield is 7.7%. Treasury bonds are only 2.7%.
Visa (V) is also forecasted to close up today. Visa was expected to report Q3 earnings Wednesday and the outlook was optimistic. Visa is currently teaming up with Google and Nokia, and they beat there expected earnings by two cents. Sentiment for Visa has been pretty bearish and if you overlay the quote, you can see the price has been closely following. It seems as if now that V is ticking up, sentiment is starting to become a little more bullish too, not surprisingly.
Exxon Mobile (XOM) posted its biggest profit ever of $14.83 billion so naturally they are forecasted to close up today. Exxon has been feeling the benefit of the record prices of crude oil lately. Sentiment for XOM is actually pretty bearish even though the price is high. I suspect sentiment will move up shortly.
Word to the wise, I have been predicting on anything that has been forecasted and have really seen my accuracy rating go up. Just last week I was under 50% accuracy and now I’m at 52%. Not only does this excite me because I’m on my way to being a four star predictor, but more importantly it just goes to show you the accuracy of the forecasts. They have been consistently correct in there up down forecasts. This is valuable information that I could actually be trading on it because it’s that correct. There have been only several forecasts that were wrong out of hundreds. So by using the forecasts, you can actually predict the market!
Hope everyone has a great Halloween and stays safe!
With the anniversary of Black Tuesday a few days away, investors can’t help but be nervous of the axiom “history repeats itself.” Stocks fluctuate this morning as investors try to figure out the direction of rate cuts, a global economic recession and the government now buying stakes in nine major banks in an attempt to prop up the banking sector. With so many uncertain expectations, its hard to discern a clear direction, however. PredictWallStreet’s sentiment meter for the NASDAQ, DJIA, and SP500 is clearly bearish right now, reflecting such investor doubt.
Google (GOOG) is forecasted to close up today, according to PredictWallStreet. Sentiment for GOOG has been rather bearish this month but appears to be gaining some momentum. Several analysts believe tech shares are trading at major discounts and I agree. I think the best way to monetize the internet right now is through search and GOOG has clearly optimized this chance. In my opinion, I think GOOG is selling at a deal right now and in the long run would be a good investment despite any volatility its experiencing right now. But hey, what securities aren’t experiencing that?
AT&T (T) is also forecasted to close up today. AT&T recently reported revenues that met expectations; a good percentage of this propped by iPhone sales, despite what a lot of people think regarding distribution rights. I think AT&T has positioned itself for growth and will continue to grab new customers with there 3G network and smartphones. Without getting too obsessed with the current emotion regarding the general market, AT&T is looking to be a sound company with good cash flow despite everything else.
And a company I used to really like but took a turn for the worst, First Solar Inc. (FSLR) is forecasted to close up today. I bought this company (in a online simulation of course) when the alternative energy companies were all a buzz and gaining lots of momentum to shortly crash hard weeks later. Now its not that I don’t think these companies are still great, because I do, its just I jumped on bandwagon that I should of recognized was a typical investor folly. While I believe the company has room to grow, it may be hard to do so in our given environment. Nevertheless, if you can manage to get this company at good price, perhaps it will fare well when “recession” isn’t such a buzz word. Sentiment for FSLR is a little bumpy, but seems to be general becoming stronger. So basically, if you’re a young investor and have lots of time to spare. In this case, time is indeed on your side.
Make sure you check out all the forecasts for today; they’re are a ton and there all showing green!
My Security Markets professor spent the weekend hanging out with Bernanke and Paulson drinking Diet Cokes and chit chatting about the economy. No big deal really, he was one of five asked to be on a advisory committee in D.C. for the weekend. Maybe it’s just an economic major nerd thing, but I thought this was the coolest. I wonder what I would say to them, face to face. “Mr. Bernanke, what are you being for Halloween?” Ya, that would be my top question.
Oy. The Dow is below 9000 again and “investors are still nervous about a weakening economy.” PredictWallStreet shows bearish sentiment for SP500 and the DJIA while NASDAQ remains relativley bullish.
There are a ton of forecasts today on PredictWallStreet.com and most of them look pretty optimistic. Seeing a lot of green today. I’m gonna highlight a few of the companies I’m most strongly affiliated with.
Amazon (AMZN) dropped after its earnings release Wednesday even though sales increased by 31%. They are forecasted to close up today. Sentiment for AMZN is pretty bearish right now. Investors and consumers alike are worried about the negative wealth effect and spending really affecting Amazon this holiday season and even into 2009. As consumers watch there net wealth deplete, they may be less inclined to spend money at all which clearly will damage Amazon. However on the other hand, consumers may seem Amazon as a alternative to shopping as they offer discount prices, free shipping on certain orders and can ultimately save you shopping and traveling (gas) expenses. In my opinion, I think consumers will rely on Amazon and that while they’re may be less sales all together, AMZN wont be hit as hard as other retailers will be come this holiday season.
On the banking side, Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo and Co. (WFC) are forecasted to close up today. Sentiment for both is not surprisingly bearish, as people continue to worry about the weakening economy. I feel a lot of people are waiting to see what the banks are going to do with this government money. Until the effects are felt in the household, I would believe sentiment for such institutions will remain week but C and WFC are perhaps already leveraging such money while WFC is already in the process of acquiring Wachovia bank.
JP Morgan (JPM) is the only company forecasted to close down today. Sentiment for JPM is actually pretty strong and almost in the bullish zone. Hmm. It seems as if forecasts are moving almost in the opposite direction of sentiment today, at least for the few companies I have looked at. I’m confused as to why this is, but maybe sentiment has yet to catch up with the company.
General Motors (GM) is forecasted to close up today. GM has been struggling to secure there financial position as they try to acquire Chrysler and increase there cash flow. In my opinion, GM needs to innovate and revamp not only there cars, but there image to keep up with the more forward looking car companies. Theirs talk of government intervention to help ease investor worries, but that remains to be seen. Maybe laying off those 40,000 workers was beneficial…sentiment for GM is somewhat bearish, but beginning to move up.
I’m wearing a turtleneck today. It’s not even really cold I just wanted to wear it because it feels official and sophisticated. I looked up the history of the turtleneck this morning too. Essentially wearing one is an intellectual fashion statement. I own a lot of turtlenecks for the record.
While I wouldn’t necessarily say things are looking a lot better on Wall Street, there has been less news to cry about. A late rally Monday brought the DOW up almost 400 points. Today investors have pulled back as numerous quarterly earnings are released. On PredictWallStreet.com, sentiment for the DJIA is extremely bearish, while the SP500 remains bearish as well. Sentiment for NASDAQ has become slightly bullish. Community Sentiment on the site also reports that 71.7% of predictors think the market will go up. What do you think the markets will do?
Yahoo! (YHOO) is expected to release Q3 earnings today and is also forecasted on PredictWallStreet to close up! There has been a lot of rumors lately circulating about a deal between Google and Yahoo! but so far it has only been hearsay. I’m curious to see what will be said in the conference today. Yahoo is planning on cutting thousands of jobs but some analysts say that wont be enough to help YHOO price, the lowest its been in five years. Sentiment is becoming more bullish but perhaps will drop after today’s earnings results. I have predicted down for YHOO. At this point I feel they have lost so much confidence in the company that even new management might not do the trick.
Citigroup (C) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are both forecasted to close down today. Sentiment for both banks is surprisingly strong, both becoming more bullish. I would assume that after all the bailouts and stimulus packages and injections of cash people have had there faith minimally restored although its going to be awhile before we see any sort of larger changes. There are about 140 predictions on C this morning and 61% of those people feel it will close up. I’ll have to check back tomorrow to see if the masses were right or the forecast was.
AT&T (T) is forecasted to close up today, one of the only two forecasted to close up besides YHOO. Surely iPhone sales have done AT&T good this last year and I’m not gonna lie, I’ve considered switching over to them but ya know, I cant really argue when my mom is paying the bill. Anyhoo, sentiment for T (by far the weirdest ticker symbol p.s.) appears pretty bearish right now and the price has been fluctuating quite a lot this morning but T seems to be pretty moody the past month (1 month sentiment chart) so these could just be temporary glitches. I predict up up and away for T.
In Warren Buffet’s latest op-ed he writes “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” And it’s no secret that right now even the most seasoned of investors are indeed fearful. But while some may see the this as an inopportune time, Buffet finds a way to inject his persevering optimism into the situation we face today revealing that opportunity does exist; you just have to find the windows.
Buffet likens the volatility of today’s market, perhaps even the next months or years market, as merely “hiccups” in the lifespan of our economy. While no one can exactly predict the market’s mood in the short-term, history shows that in the long run stable companies will show profits. Essentially, the market will move up in the long run, perhaps even before sentiment and the economy turns up.
Looking for opportunities can be tricky, and even more scary when your own money is involved. Practicing and testing my investing strategy is a great place to start and I can do so by predicting on companies I’m looking at on PredictWallStreet.com
Today they have released several forecasts which are great starting places for new and even veteran investors. By looking at the forecasts I get a more accurate sense of which way the stock will be heading. I then like to look at sentiment to see how investors are feeling in general. In times like these, the markets can really be effected by emotion. It’s a roller coaster of love (or hate) out there. And lastly, once I’ve aggregated the information I need, I make a prediction on the company and check back the next day to see how accurate I am in determining this stocks movement. So far I have had the most accuracy in determining Research In Motion (RIMM). Yup, that’s me, Kris 23, 5 star predictor on RIMM.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) has been forecasted today to close down. After releasing there Q3 results they showed decelerating charts heading into Q4. But, drawing upon Buffets conclusions, I believe these problems regarding eBay to be more macro/market than firm specific. In my opinion, I think we may see eBay down for awhile, with a temporary pop due to the holidays. In the long run, I believe this still to be a profitable company. Until then, I have to agree that I predict eBay to close down. Timing here is the more crucial aspect.
General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today. About 83% of the 120 predictions believe GE will close up today as well. Sentiment for GE has shown dips of extremely bearish sentiment with an upsurge into bull territory around the 16th of this month. I believe sentiment to become stronger even though it looks pretty bearish right now. I’m predicting up for today.
I’ve written about Wal-Mart (WMT) a few times in my past few posts. They are forecasted to close up today. I’ve predicted them to close up was well. Sentiment appears to be pretty neutral but may be slowly starting to become more bearish. I stand by my mini analysis a few weeks ago that consumers are flocking to anything “discount” and Wal-Mart is at the mother ship of discount grocery/retailer. While you may not be a fan on there ethics, it’s desperate times for some.
There are a ton of other forecasts to check out here. I just write about the few companies that interest me most and who’s products I’m most familiar with. If I’m not exactly sure what kind of business a company is in, I probably wont know much about predicting the direction of the company either. I’ve found that companies who’s products I’ve actually held and have more affiliation with, the better I am at predicting. Probably why I’m so good at RIMM. My cell phone is almost glued to my hand and I guarantee you I can text faster than you can talk
After a few days of forecastlessness, PredictWallStreet has published 15 new forecasts for you to eat and enjoy. A few new companies that I haven’t seen forecasted in awhile that I’m particularly excited about. For the past few weeks I’ve been pretty upset with the way things have been looking and thus had to break up with most of my stock boyfriends. Things are a little moody this morning too; stocks have been fluctuating greatly all morning reflecting investor trepidation in assessing the current economy’s state. Now that I’m back on the market (Get it? Market. Ha.), I’m looking for some fresh meat. Ever heard the saying a fool and his money are soon invited everywhere? Seems like everywhere I turn some new security is vying for my precious affection. Weeding out the bad from the good is the hardest part.
McDonalds (MCD), fine dining of the US of A, has been forecasted this morning to close down. MCD is up right now almost 4% and investor sentiment appears to be pretty neutral but could be heading into bear territory soon. At a glance, this is surprising to me because given our current state and the decline in spending, I would think that consumers would be more apt to eat at fast food restaurants to stay in line with there budgets. Especially when discount stores like Wal-Mart are seeing such an influx of new customers, I would assume “discount” restaurants would be experiencing likely trends. Perhaps everyone is at Taco Bell. My only other conclusion is that fundamentally McDonald’s is not doing to well and has incurred a large amount of debt. But then again, who hasn’t?
Staying on topic with things you can eat, Pepsico Inc. (PEP) is forecasted to close up today. Sentiment looks to be pretty bearish this week. They announced on Tuesday they were cutting 3,300 jobs and close six plants which will certainly hurt its profits. I guess I’m confused as to why it is forecasted to close up. I mean you know it’s bad when people can’t afford $2.00 liters. A lot of analysts have been advising to stock up on dividend stocks. PEP is at 2.7% dividend yield, which I suppose is attractive at a time like this.
I just can’t stay away from Apple. It’s like that BF you know isn’t good for you, but you just can’t seem to stay away from them. AAPL is forecasted to close up today and sentiment is extremely bearish. In the past week I’ve already had three friends come up to me exclaiming how badly they want to buy a new Macbook because the price has been dropped. So there you have it. That marketing scheme worked brilliantly and Apple should probably see an increase in Macbook sells very soon. Ok I realize my friends are not indicative of the entire world, but I still do believe a lot of people will be jumping on that bandwagon. It makes perfect sense to drop prices in a time of economic tightening. The thing is you have to be a company like Apple to even make something like that plausible and affordable for the company.
Amazon (AMZN) is also forecasted to close down. Strangely at the beginning of the week when Amazon’s price dropped, sentiment was still pretty bullish. I’m assuming that this was a sort of lag on consumer reactions. On recent reports that consumers will be spending less money this year online and offline, it makes sense that Amazon would feel this crunch. RBC analysts have cut revenue estimates this year by a million dollars due to the consumer spending slow down. While Amazon often offers discount prices, even such low prices aren’t enough to keep thrifty consumers happy.
Happy Thursday to everyone! Thursdays are the best because you only have 1 day till the weekend! My new video blog has been uploaded under the Community Leader page on PredictWallStreet. Go check it out and let me know what you think!
My headband is too tight again this morning. It’s like having a headache is so much cuter when you have a bow in your hair.
As I try to figure out what exactly is happening in the market and the bailout money, I can feel my head pounding a little more. The government is now buying $250 million worth of shares in the nations leading banks in an effort to unclog credit markets. The stock market continues to fluctuate this morning after slightly rebounding yesterday and remaining above 9000 today. But don’t call last week a bottom yet, a lot of analysts warn, we’re not out of the woods by any means.
Nice to see that sentiment for the major indices has remained relatively strong this morning and that yesterday was not some temporary spike. PredictWallStreet reports that sentiment for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500 is either bullish or extremely bullish. Clicking on the Community Leaders link at the top I can check community sentiment for the overall market and it appears that about 80% of predictors predicted the markets will go up today. It seems as if the government aid and bailout promises are indeed restoring some faith to consumers and investors.
Now, I want to mention this earlier in my post than at the bottom because who knows how many of you read till the end. Every week PredictWallStreet holds a Prediction Contest giving away $300.00, $100.00 and $25.00 and all you even if have to do to be eligible is make an account, join the contest, and predict. Seriously, every week. For some of you, $300.00 may be more than you make in the market in a week anyway I know for me, as a newbie, that’s the case anyway. The contest is great because not only do you have the chance to win some effortless money, but its practice! If you’re not exactly ready to trade in the real market just yet, like me, you can test your ideas by making predictions on PredictWallStreet to see if your predictions would of been accurate. Its a great way to test trading ideas and, simultaneously you are entered to win the contest. The main idea of the contest is to see how much money the stocks you predicted on would of made in a simulated trading. So if you’re already predicting, great! If not, join the site and contest and try your skills (or luck) out.
So far this morning I’ve made a few predictions. This is my page. I’m trying out a new angle of being consistent in my predictions and have thus made all UP predictions for AAPL, BAC, MER, MS, and MTU. I’ve predicted up for most of the banks on news of the $250 million buyout of shares for the leading banks. So far, only MER and MS are up but it is the middle of the day and trading always seems to get a little crazy at this time. I’m going to try to not second guess myself and leave my predictions till the end of the day. I know most of my prediction are based on general news and public information rather than a concrete analysis, but give me a break. I’m only on chapter 6 in my investment class and sometimes that buzz can be just as helpful.
I haven’t looked at Research in Motion (RIMM) in awhile. On my account homepage it says I am most accurate at predicting that stock. Research in Motion recently released there new Blackberry Storm. Have you seen the commercial? It’s pretty cute and intriguing. The Storm isn’t exactly perfect, nor does it blow the iPhone out of the water, but it sure does enhance RIMM’s position by providing improved features and user experience. From a marketing perspective, the only problem I see with RIMM is that they produce a new phone so often that it becomes hard for the trendy consumer to stay just that: trendy. By the time you have bought the latest phone, a newer version is on its way. I think some of the success of the iPhone has come from the fact that it has no direct competitors produced from Apple. When you buy one, you have the one and only iPhone. It’s often hard for me to discern what Blackberry I think is more advantageous. I like the Storm, I like the Pearl, I like Curve. I like them all! But the brand message gets confused, a huge no no in marketing consistency. It’s likely the Blackberry’s target consumer is someone who is savvy, trendy and professional- someone on top of there work.. and the latest phone. It’s hard to stay at the top of that game when Research in Motion keeps ousting you. One could argue that RIMM is simply providing a variety for it consumers which is equally as important. But from a competitive standpoint, RIMM is not only competing against the iPhone, they’re now competing against themselves too. That’s my two cents anyway. As for fundamentals of the company, I know little to nothing but based on my simple customer perspective analysis, I’m predicting down for RIMM today. Looks like 88% of predictors disagree with me and sentiment is relativley strong. Guess we’ll have to wait and see.
I’m shooting another video blog today. If you missed the last one head over to PredictWallstreet to watch it. Send in your own videos of how you use the widget and you could be featured on the site too!
I don’t want to exactly brag about my pumpkin carving skills but, well, I’m really good at carving pumpkins. I spent Friday evening carving this years Hello Kitty pumpkin (without stencils, mind you) and have once again regained my title as Master Carver. I really love Halloween more than any other holiday. That could be reminiscing feelings of a sugar high from last year, but I think it’s still safe to say I likey it even more than my own birthday.
It’s also quite nice to return from the weekend and see the market hasn’t completely been destroyed. The Dow rebounded more than 500 points this morning and is back above 9000. Good news for people who took part in the estimated erasure of $2.4 trillion in shareholder wealth last week. Consumers and investors continue to wait and see where cash will be injected as the bailout plan details are worked out. I wouldn’t break out the party hats and balloons yet. Bond markets and US banks are closed in holiday observance today and Friday most likely didn’t mark a bottom. I would expect the coming week to experience big swings and lots of volatility as the rescue plan is delegated and European governments offer aid to there banks.
Investors and consumers alike seem to be highly optimistic, whether this is “overly” optimistic or not remains to be seen as “buy the dip” continues to ring through the streets. Checking overall index sentiment on PredictWallStreet, I can see that sentiment for DJIA, NASDAQ and the SP500 has become increasingly more bullish. In fact, sentiment for NASDAQ and DJIA has become extremely bullish, showing that investors have become more optimistic after a hellish last week, even if it is only for a day.
After reading about Mitsubishi Bank’s $9 billion dollar investment in Morgan Stanley (MS) I went to check out there stock on PredictWallStreet’s widget. MS has already raised over 70% this morning to 16.72. I predicted up on MS. Looking at 1 month sentiment, I can see its been a wild ride for Morgan Stanley. Sentiment was up for about three weeks, then had a temporary down glitch before moving back up. Then sentiment drastically fell last week. If you overlay the price quote you can see that the price dropped drastically right around this same time. I would assume that as the price slowly moves up, that investors will regain some confidence in Morgan Stanley, especially after Mitsubishi’s investment. The sensitive sentiment shows how emotional behavior has effected this stock.
Because PredictWallStreet is about bringing together the investor community, it is valuable for me to check what other expert investors are doing. There are actually two “experts” on Morgan Stanley who are either 4 or 3 star predictors. The higher the star rating, the more accurate this predictor has been in the past. Right now I’m looking at sharron51, who is a 4 star predictor and expert on MS. Observing successful investors is crucial for a more novice investor like myself because I view it as sort of guideline and I can mimic her style if I wanted too. It’s also valuable in that I can compare my own predictions to that of a more credible predictor. I can see that sharron51 actually predicted down today for MS, while I predicted up. This sort of comparison is helpful for me because I am able to see what other investors think. While my prediction is more of a educated guess, I can assume that perhaps sharron’s is a more credible prediction because of her accuracy rating.
Another stock I want to check out this morning is Apple (AAPL). Because Apple is such a huge player in the public sphere, I always feel like there stock moves on any sort of news or publicity about the company; which is often so I’m always keeping an eye on them. The latest news is a revealing of new Macbooks priced below $1000.00, a first for Apple. Even if consumers are spending less, if anyone is seriously thinking of buying a new computer, I would find this lower price especially attractive. AAPL is up today 8.24% at 104.78. While this price is nothing Apple is used to seeing, it is better than what they have seen in the past week, all things considered. Apple has almost 300 predictions on PredictWallStreet, increasing the chances that more professionals have been drawn to predicting on this stock in turn increasing its accuracy. Looking at 1 month sentiment I can see that Apple has been quite bearish in the past month but is recently becoming more bullish as the price gains. While Apple is not out of the woods yet, they are making a clear trail.
Cbrown1966 is a five-star predictor (wow!) on Apple, making him an expert. He has predicted up today for Apple and so did I! Looking at all his predictions ( there are over 20) I can see he appears to be very bullish today. Looking at his predictions from last week, he appeared to be very bearish. It seems that Cbrown is very consistent in his predictions; when he predicts down, he does so for the majority of his predictions. This method is clearly working for him as his accuracy is almost 50%. Perhaps this is reflective of moods of the greater indexes in times like these- when indexes like the NASDAQ and DJIA are experiencing large downs, all individual stocks will feel that downturn as well. The up’s and downs are directly reverberated throughout the market when they are on such grand scales, like the market has been seeing in the past few weeks. I’m just speculating here, but this what I have drawn from Cbrown’s page. A pretty simple and maybe even obvious conclusion, but useful to me nonetheless.
Sometimes you hear a story and you just can’t pull yourself away from it because it’s that good. You’re right at the cliff hanger and you have to hear the end no matter what. That’s why I originally brought my cell phone in the shower with me. I had to read the last text in a series of three of the most amazing story from my roommate. It’s no surprise my phone broke. My alarm has been going off since 7:55 this morning because I can’t press the dismiss button. It’s not that I didn’t realize water and electronics don’t mix, it’s just that I was willing to take the chance. I’m a risk taker, you know. Gotta cut you’re losses eventually though. I’m not happy about buying another overpriced mobile phone with my overpriced service carrier today, but hey, stuff happens.
And I think I’ll pay for that new phone in cash, or at least debit. I’m about ready to throw my credit cards away after I saw my latest interest charge. The credit crisis has gone global. Iceland is practically bankrupt, Canada can hardly get loans, the Yen keeps slipping and the government is debating taking partial ownership in US banks. Oy. Whats up with Wall Street today? Nothing, hahaha. Bad joke, but seriously stocks fell again this Thursday. The DOW has been fluctuating all morning, along with the SP500 and NASDAQ.
I always like to see where sentiment lies for these major indexes every day. I find it so interesting how bullish investors can be about a particular index when everything in the market seems to be flailing. Lately, the bears have been dominating the bulls however. Checking the font page of PredictWallStreet, I can see sentiment for the SP500, NASDAQ and DJIA are all bearish, while the DJIA and SP500 are extremely bearish. This isn’t too surprising after seeing and reading about the fears the credit crunch has sparked.
Harnessing the collective intelligence of the community, PredictWallStreet has published a bunch of forecasts today. Because of the accuracy of the forecasts (they outperform major indexes like the SP500), the more the better!
There are a few banks forecasted today, which seems appropriate given the recent headlines. Out of the four I’m looking at, only one is forecasted to close up and that bank is Bank of America (BAC). In my opinion, this makes sense. Through all the dramarama regarding banks lately, Bank of America seems to have been the only one unscathed for the most part, staying out of the headlines and away from the eery B’s-bankruptcy, bailout, buyout. This is not to say BAC isn’t struggling, but maybe it’s struggling less. Citigroup (C) is forecasted to close down, along with Morgan Stanley (MS) and Wachovia (WB). Sentiment for C, MS, and WB is all bearish. Looks like Wells Fargo and C can’t save Wachovia right now. There down almost 17% right now at 4.21. This love triangle is more o no no, than o la la.
Apple (AAPL) has been seeing some gains the past few days, after a bit of struggling. AAPL is forecasted to close up today. Looks like Research in Motion’s new Blackberry Storm did little to move King iPhone. Apple is also reported to be selling there new MacBooks under the scary $1,000.00 price tag; a good move in my opinion. Deals and steals are gonna be what consumers are mainly looking for now. Apple is up 2.5% to about 92.00. When I look at sentiment, I can see that it has been dragging slowly out of its down position and is becoming more bullish.
Wal-Mart (WMT) has been forecasted to close up today. This seems odd to me considering there has been a decrease in consumer confidence and thus a decrease in consumer spending. But I am led to the conclusion that consumers are turning to bargain super stores like Wal-Mart to save wherever they can. Looking at 1 month sentiment and overlaying the price quote, I can see that even when the price dropped for Wal-Mart, sentiment remained relativley strong. Right now sentiment has fallen along with the price but I expect both to be up soon as holiday shopping is right around the corner and is always a time of giant spending.
I opted for green tea this morning instead of coffee. I figure if I start drinking antioxidants and using fancy creams now I’ll look like I’m 20 for the rest of my life. Ahhhh.
Finally, here’s the video blog I’ve been writing about for a month. See, no wrinkles yet.
Check out what I’m talking about HERE. And to see the video in its original glory on PredictWallStreet.com click HERE.
And if I could stop worrying about my bank account so much, I’d probably have less wrinkles in my forehead. If I could stop worrying about unemployment and our economy, I’d probably never have a gray hair in my life. Unfortunately, I’ll most likely be able to see the effects of 2008 in my face twenty years from now. So the Fed is buying up more debt in yet another effort to unclog credit markets today. They announced this morning a plan to buy commercial papers-short term debts companies rely on for day to day operations like buying supplies and payroll. The tight credit that is plaguing the market is making it extremely hard for companies to obtain money to sustain operations. Bernanke has also hinted at a rate cut. The general public seems to still be wary, if not in panic, although its hard to understand that such remedies don’t always have immediate effects.
While yesterday was a disaster in the stock market, today is not much better. The DOW fell about 200 points, while the SP500 fell about 27 and NASDAQ fell approximately 55. Looks like investor sentiment isn’t getting any more optimistic either. Looking at the sentiment graph on PredictWallStreet.com, all three aforementioned indexes have extremely bearish sentiment. I’m beginning to see the importance of consumer and business confidence because investors do act on those feelings. Such pessimism (or optimism) has rippling effects throughout the market.
Today’s forecast is cloudy, but with a chance of sun. PredictWallStreet published several forecasts this morning and surprisingly there not all gloom and doom.
Apple (AAPL) who was forecasted to close down yesterday is forecasted to close up today. This is good news for Apple fan boys who have been watching the stock price fall. Even though one week sentiment for AAPL appears to be extremely bearish right now, I believe I see it making a slow tick back up. Perhaps investors are becoming more confident in AAPL; they did just hit there estimated goal of 10M iPhone sales.
Bank of America Corp., (BAC) is also forecasted to close up today. This is good news for the giant bank and one of the only few left that I personally have any faith in. First Solar Inc., (FSLR) a company I used to adore and haven’t spent much time with in awhile is forecasted to close up today. I bough this company awhile ago and they performed really well for awhile before everyone jumped on the alt energy bandwagon and I lost a lot of virtual money on this stock. Like a lot, a lot. FSLR is nowhere close to the price it used to be, but perhaps people are getting behind alt energy again in the wake of our recent economic events.
General Electric (GE) is showing some green today too. There forecasted to close up from closing price. One week sentiment was looking pretty week yesterday but is appearing to make small gains out of bear territory. Another company I always like to spend some quality time with is Research in Motion, (RIMM), makers of the Blackberry. They too are forecasted to close up today. Sentiment has moved up and perhaps will bring the price with it. I’ve always liked RIMM, although he’s a bit moody from time to time.
Be nice about the video. I’d love to hear some feedback. Just remember it’s not as easy at it looks
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