In Warren Buffet’s latest op-ed he writes “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” And it’s no secret that right now even the most seasoned of investors are indeed fearful. But while some may see the this as an inopportune time, Buffet finds a way to inject his persevering optimism into the situation we face today revealing that opportunity does exist; you just have to find the windows.
Buffet likens the volatility of today’s market, perhaps even the next months or years market, as merely “hiccups” in the lifespan of our economy. While no one can exactly predict the market’s mood in the short-term, history shows that in the long run stable companies will show profits. Essentially, the market will move up in the long run, perhaps even before sentiment and the economy turns up.
Looking for opportunities can be tricky, and even more scary when your own money is involved. Practicing and testing my investing strategy is a great place to start and I can do so by predicting on companies I’m looking at on PredictWallStreet.com
Today they have released several forecasts which are great starting places for new and even veteran investors. By looking at the forecasts I get a more accurate sense of which way the stock will be heading. I then like to look at sentiment to see how investors are feeling in general. In times like these, the markets can really be effected by emotion. It’s a roller coaster of love (or hate) out there. And lastly, once I’ve aggregated the information I need, I make a prediction on the company and check back the next day to see how accurate I am in determining this stocks movement. So far I have had the most accuracy in determining Research In Motion (RIMM). Yup, that’s me, Kris 23, 5 star predictor on RIMM.
eBay Inc. (EBAY) has been forecasted today to close down. After releasing there Q3 results they showed decelerating charts heading into Q4. But, drawing upon Buffets conclusions, I believe these problems regarding eBay to be more macro/market than firm specific. In my opinion, I think we may see eBay down for awhile, with a temporary pop due to the holidays. In the long run, I believe this still to be a profitable company. Until then, I have to agree that I predict eBay to close down. Timing here is the more crucial aspect.
General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today. About 83% of the 120 predictions believe GE will close up today as well. Sentiment for GE has shown dips of extremely bearish sentiment with an upsurge into bull territory around the 16th of this month. I believe sentiment to become stronger even though it looks pretty bearish right now. I’m predicting up for today.
I’ve written about Wal-Mart (WMT) a few times in my past few posts. They are forecasted to close up today. I’ve predicted them to close up was well. Sentiment appears to be pretty neutral but may be slowly starting to become more bearish. I stand by my mini analysis a few weeks ago that consumers are flocking to anything “discount” and Wal-Mart is at the mother ship of discount grocery/retailer. While you may not be a fan on there ethics, it’s desperate times for some.
There are a ton of other forecasts to check out here. I just write about the few companies that interest me most and who’s products I’m most familiar with. If I’m not exactly sure what kind of business a company is in, I probably wont know much about predicting the direction of the company either. I’ve found that companies who’s products I’ve actually held and have more affiliation with, the better I am at predicting. Probably why I’m so good at RIMM. My cell phone is almost glued to my hand and I guarantee you I can text faster than you can talk




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1 response so far ↓
Eric Lee // October 20, 2008 at 8:01 pm |
I finally decided to write a comment on your blog. I just wanted to say good job. I really enjoy reading your posts.