My Security Markets professor spent the weekend hanging out with Bernanke and Paulson drinking Diet Cokes and chit chatting about the economy. No big deal really, he was one of five asked to be on a advisory committee in D.C. for the weekend. Maybe it’s just an economic major nerd thing, but I thought this was the coolest. I wonder what I would say to them, face to face. “Mr. Bernanke, what are you being for Halloween?” Ya, that would be my top question.
Oy. The Dow is below 9000 again and “investors are still nervous about a weakening economy.” PredictWallStreet shows bearish sentiment for SP500 and the DJIA while NASDAQ remains relativley bullish.
There are a ton of forecasts today on PredictWallStreet.com and most of them look pretty optimistic. Seeing a lot of green today. I’m gonna highlight a few of the companies I’m most strongly affiliated with.
Amazon (AMZN) dropped after its earnings release Wednesday even though sales increased by 31%. They are forecasted to close up today. Sentiment for AMZN is pretty bearish right now. Investors and consumers alike are worried about the negative wealth effect and spending really affecting Amazon this holiday season and even into 2009. As consumers watch there net wealth deplete, they may be less inclined to spend money at all which clearly will damage Amazon. However on the other hand, consumers may seem Amazon as a alternative to shopping as they offer discount prices, free shipping on certain orders and can ultimately save you shopping and traveling (gas) expenses. In my opinion, I think consumers will rely on Amazon and that while they’re may be less sales all together, AMZN wont be hit as hard as other retailers will be come this holiday season.
On the banking side, Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo and Co. (WFC) are forecasted to close up today. Sentiment for both is not surprisingly bearish, as people continue to worry about the weakening economy. I feel a lot of people are waiting to see what the banks are going to do with this government money. Until the effects are felt in the household, I would believe sentiment for such institutions will remain week but C and WFC are perhaps already leveraging such money while WFC is already in the process of acquiring Wachovia bank.
JP Morgan (JPM) is the only company forecasted to close down today. Sentiment for JPM is actually pretty strong and almost in the bullish zone. Hmm. It seems as if forecasts are moving almost in the opposite direction of sentiment today, at least for the few companies I have looked at. I’m confused as to why this is, but maybe sentiment has yet to catch up with the company.
General Motors (GM) is forecasted to close up today. GM has been struggling to secure there financial position as they try to acquire Chrysler and increase there cash flow. In my opinion, GM needs to innovate and revamp not only there cars, but there image to keep up with the more forward looking car companies. Theirs talk of government intervention to help ease investor worries, but that remains to be seen. Maybe laying off those 40,000 workers was beneficial…sentiment for GM is somewhat bearish, but beginning to move up.
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