The Break Up: Apple and MacWorld

Here we go again with another Apple story…

Apple holds there MacWorld event every January and July. Investors and consumers eagerly await Steve Job’s keynote and the announcement of new products. This year, however, Jobs isn’t giving the keynote. And this January will be Apples last MacWorld event. What does it all mean? Speculation and rumors have took over the blogs and news this morning. We have the usual “Jobs is sick and stepping down from Apple”, that “Apple has no new products to announce” and is lessening expectations and the possible idea of a succession plan. Either way, AAPL stock took a 6 point hit this morning following the news and investors seems wary of the recent rumors. Apple has a history of disclosing very little information regarding Jobs. Why the leave so much gray area up for interpretation, I’m not so sure. In the past such rumors have proved favorable for the company as bloggers speculated new Macbooks and iPods and the stock steadily shot up on the buzz. But whenever a possibility arises to prob Job’s health, you can bet the stock will drop at least minimally.

Of course I wanted to see how this news was affecting investor sentiment. I went to PredictWallStreet to make my eh hem down prediction and checked one month sentiment. While yesterday sentiment has began to flat line after being bearish for some time, I can see that sentiment has slightly taken a downturn and looks like it’s heading to become bearish once again. Knowing this, I can assume the price will drag down with it (its already down 6% today). I do not know how long such news will effect AAPL but I would assume that unless some other positive story comes out to shock sentiment to become more optimistic, AAPL will most likely suffer. Now AAPL being the sensitive stock it is doesn’t take much to shift so I always find it important to stay on top of their press releases; as you can see they are in the news almost every single day. This may be a good time for the shorts but it will most likely be short-lived. I like Apple to much and if I did indeed own this stock I would hold onto it for the long run as it’s fluctuations are normally temporary. Of course, I am not an investment adviser nor do I even own AAPL. Always take to your investment adviser before making any investing decisions.

Research in Motion (RIMM) has been forecasted to close up today. Research in Motion has also been rumored to be launching products in China which will be a tremendous boost to sales and market share. As the traditional headset market dies out, smartphones are taking over. With the rocky launch of the Storm behind them, I think RIMM is setting them self up as a fundamentally sound company and ready to take on 2009. They continue to launch new products (Storm, Bold, new BlackBerry Curve 8900, and the Pearl Flip) positioning them to be a strong competitor with the ability to be a leader in the smartphone market. Sentiment for RIMM is becoming bullish-clearly investors have confidence in this company.

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!

Fed cuts rate to record lows

It’s always nerve wracking to take you’re finals, well because they are finals, but because the next time you see your grade it’s official. There is no “next test I’ll bring my grade up.” With that being said, I was very pleased to login and see I got an A in my security markets class. My other grades don’t even matter anymore, all I wanted was that A in 133 Security Markets.

The Fed is expected to cut rates today to a new record low ( a range of zero to 0.25% is to be expected) and pledges to use “all available tools” to combat the crisis were in right now. The stock market reacted by extending gains this morning. The Dow is currently up 150. It was only up 100 before the announcement. Investor sentiment has also rose accordingly. PredictWallStreet’s real-time sentiment meter shows sentiment to be bullish for the NASDAQ and extremely bullish for the DJIA.

It’s official. Apple (AAPL) will be selling discounted price iPhones at certain Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club locations. There are strong opinions on this move from Apple. Sentiment recently flat lined and stopped falling into the bearish zone. I, personally, don’t see how this is necessarily a bad idea given the recent economy and slow-down in consumer spending. Companies are having to exhaust any outlet they can. Reports Monday indicated that U.S. sales of Apple Inc.’s Mac computers were flat in November and numerous analysts have downgraded there selling estimate numbers for a range of their products (not new news really). But despite things like the iPod market being saturated and Mac sales declining, I think it’s still remarkable that Apple is even able to get close to any of the selling estimate numbers.

I believe the iTouch and iPhone have bright futures and at this point its all about upgrading for Apple consumers. Apple recognizes the slowdown and is reacting fast (Wal-Mart move). As for the fact that Wal-Mart customers may not initially want an iPhone, they are also customers looking for bargains and with the new discount price, they are definitely more inclined to make this purchase. Demand might be down but investors seem to still be feeling confident in Apple as sentiment was recently bearish but is beginning to move up. They’ve also been forecasted today on PredictWallStreet to close up today. Like I said before, these forecasts have been beating the market by about 65% lately so I’ve come to trust them as a crucial tool in my predicting arsenal. I would say that Apple will prove to be a company able to withstand a lot of the economic pressures that other companies will have trouble with.

I just realized I write a lot about Apple. I can’t really help it when there products are so near to my heart and they are in the news everyday. Hey, I’m just giving the people what they want.

Also, as a follow up to yesterdays little blurb on Google, I just went to predict on them and noticed they are up about 16 points from yesterday. Sentiment was also bearish yesterday but has moved up to begin its journey into bull town, USA. While investors seemed a little shocked yesterday at the WSJ’s net neutrality article it seems they are back behind Google’s rebuttal that the story was rubbish. However, I did notice that Google has been kicked off the list of top most trusted companies. I think investors want to trust Google, but it’s often difficult to trust such a giant with so much power. To use that power for good or evil…that is the question.

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!

Madoff Scandal lingers

It’s been a rainy weekend and I’m glad to see some sunshine although I know it’s short lived. I only like the rain when I sleep in.

The market returned from the weekend still a little edgy on the recent Madoff scandal. As more and more firms reveal to be effected by the investment manager, the attention has turned from the auto industry to Madoff madness. Stocks also dropped lower in anticipation of an earnings report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

PredictWallStreet published several forecasts today. These forecasts have been beating the market by 65% the past few months. I’m not gonna lie, there are definitely a few companies that are forecasted in which I have no clue what they do which means I probably won’t predict on them nor would I trade on them. I did notice Morgan Stanley is forecasted which is most likely due to their earnings report being eagerly waited for. Surprisingly the forecasts look pretty green today, despite the overall market being pretty draggy.

Google (GOOG) is in the headlines for blasting the Wall Street Journal on some bogus story they wrote. WSJ reported something about Google not favoring net neutrality anymore in which Google bitingly replied that the story was “wildly, dramatically overblown.” Currently investors are feeling bearish about Google although this seems contrast to the price. When I overlay the price quote, it is actually lies pretty high and seems to be moving up while sentiment is in the bearish red zone. I’m not exactly sure how to interpret this but my best guess would be that sentiment for this stock could be slow to catch up to the price. When looking at the one month sentiment, I can see that even when sentiment fell really low, the price stayed high so perhaps this stocks price isn’t as sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

Apple (AAPL) shares took a hit this morning from a downgrade from Goldman’s. AAPL shares were down 2% this morning. Apparently Apple is too expensive compared to the slow down in consumer spending and that Apple has shipped less than expected amounts of products. Checking out Apple on PredictWallStreet I can see that that under the one month sentiment tab sentiment was recently extremely bearish, then moved up and is now back on its way to bear territory. Price seems to be following sentiment as it should be. Apple is normally pretty responsive to bad (or good) press and I have predicted down today for Apple given the Goldman’s downgrade.

I just noticed that my predicting accuracy is down again and has been yo yo-ing for some time now. As long as I stay above 50% I am happy although being at 54% at one point was pretty sweet. I stopped predicting on such a wide range of stocks and only predicted on the few I’m most familiar with. Let’s see if that boosts my percentage.

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!

Testing your strategy

I am officially done with the hardest finals week of my life (3 and 1/2 hour security markets test, no big deal) and done with one of the last real quarters of college. It should be smooth sailing from here on out.

So, the auto bailout was rejected and the market falls. It’s strange to think that the decision of saving these three company’s has been propping the entire market for the past week. Or maybe it’s not strange. After all, the market has become one giant emotional little girl. The financial crisis has caused a flurry of macroeconomics and sentiment forces that often create price movements.

It has become increasingly important to not only look at fundamentals, but at investor sentiment as well as the market becomes increasingly emotionally driven. The stock predictions at PredictWallStreet reflect all information included in the price as well as investor sentiment.

Who have I been looking at lately… Apple (AAPL): despite analyst warnings that Apple is about to hit some hard times selling iPhone’s and iPods, sentiment remains relativley bullish. I think investors have come to see AAPL as a sort of rock in this crazy market because even when Apple does “bad” its never really that bad in comparison.

Research in Motion (RIMM): investors were extremely bearish last week before sentiment shot up shortly and is now back to being bearish. RIMM has also been predicted to see a decrease in revenue as smartphone market is almost already saturated and dominated by the iPhone. It’s really a shame the Storm proved to be such disaster. In my opinion that was RIMM’s last chance before the years end. However, despite such pessimistic sentiment, the price is up today. This is where the time lag comes in- I often feel that price takes a few days to catch up to sentiment or vice versa. If a stock price has consistently followed sentiment and sentiment moves first…well you can begin to anticipate the stocks next movement.

Yahoo (YHOO): still in the search for a new CEO and they have a few capable candidates. At this time I feel investors want to see some direction and any CEO taking the reins need’s to be forceful enough to push Yahoo the way they need to go. Whatever that way is, I do not know. But it better be good. Yahoo is seeing sloooow gains. Sentiment is extremely bullish and will hopefully keep price in the green. I would expect that as soon as Yahoo actually announces their new CEO and assuming investors like him/her, sentiment will stay bullish and the price will shoot up. Just a guess, I’m not an investment adviser.

I, for one, am always nervous and hesitant about making first time decisions. PredictWallStreet is a way for me to test my investment strategy for free without risking any money. I can formulate my strategy, and then predict on the stock at the time I would invest. By checking “My Page” I can keep track of my accuracy of the stocks I predicted on. This way I can prevent myself from investing in stocks I have no affinity for and consistently predicted wrong on. The “My Page” give me a track record of my actions as well, so I can see my performance over time. Which is hopefully improving

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!

Lay on the lay-offs

On this Monday morning rally the Dow gained 300 points on news of Obama’s plan for a huge infrastructure spending plan. It will be the largest US public works spending program since the interstate highway program. The infrastructure spending is expected to held aid the suffering economy by supplying thousands of jobs building schools and various construction problems. Investors are optimistic of the plan. As I check PredictWallStreet to make my usual predictions, I’m seeing a lot of green.

RIMM is predicted to close up today and have gained almost 6% today, although I think this has more to do with the general rally of the market than RIMMs performance itself. The storm is officially a piece of junk. And whether you personally have had a great experience with it or are among the hoards of bloggers who think it’s a piece, it doesn’t matter. The reputation is out and it isn’t a good one. The buzz surrounding the phone didnt take long to effect RIMM’s sentiment either. Looking at one month sentiment, you can see it fell to become extremely bearish.

While the price has moved up, I hardly doubt it will sustain with such a negative sentiment. As the holidays approach, perhaps there will be more iPhones under the tree than Storms.

Also, as you scour you’re normal finance sites I’m sure you have noticed the countless headlines screaming “XYZ to cut 15,000 jobs.” Such numbers and diction would lead any reasonable person to believe that this company is doing bad. You might also think hey, this company isn’t making enough money to keep their employee’s and I should most definitely head over to PredictWallStreet and predict down for this company. Ok, maybe that wouldn’t be the first thought of a reasonable person, but for blog sake, it’s the general picture one would assume, yes?

But you, my friend, are no average person. You are the informed investor. And if you take a different perspective you can actually seem some light in such cut-offs. Right now our playing field is “bad.” I mean, really, what company is doing that outstanding? Save a few, most companies are experiencing downturns due to the economy. So now that everyone is playing in the same “bad” playing field, it’s going to be the companies who make the FIRST efforts to correct and accommodate such losses who come out as winners. So, all emotions aside, it’s terribly unfortunate so many people are loosing their jobs (not to mention the larger macro implications this has on our economy, but my logic here is for the narrow minded investor). Yet, from the perspective of an investor concerned about his portfolio, this means more retained earrings and more profit for these companies. Ya ya I know, eventually this sort thing will catch up with these companies; as less supply also means less product to less revenue. But for the short-run these companies are taking the first steps in handling the downturn. Companies that take longer to accommodate our new economy could be hurt worse in the end. It’s about adaption.

The market is inevitably emotional right now, but it doesn’t have to be all sad faces and sadgusyontradingfloor. I guess I’m feeling particularly bullish today, can you tell? Anyhoo, before I predict, I’m checking headlines, I’m checking sentiment and without getting wrapped up in anything to emotional, I will make my predictions.

I feel like I got very economical in this post. It’s finals week, I guess I’m just in that state of mind.

Auto Bailout: To be or not to be?

Monday was a rough day for Wall Street-nearly a 680 point drop. Tuesday is slowly looking better on news that Ford will make it to the end of the year and on account that it’s my birthday. Stocks in all industries went up today on news that I turn 21. Just kidding. Not about me turning 21… Check out the forecasts for the NASDAQ on PredictWallStreet.

So the big 3 huh? To let them fail or not to fail, that is the question. Lets look at their current standings.
General Motors (GM) is wait, I’m a little shocked by this actually but sentiment is extremely bullish for them despite that their down 2% and ya know, that whole bankruptcy thing but that’s small fish. Looking at there one month sentiment chart on PredictWallStreet I can see that they experienced heavy bearish periods before shooting up to become extremely bullish. Maybe its just too hard to watch the iconic giant fall and investors and consumers alike are staying optimistic about this American company. Will such strong sentiment be enough to hold the price up as well?

On the other hand, we have Ford (F), who’s CEO actually just announced their in better standing than we thought and will most likely make it through 2009 also known as were waiting for Obama. On such news F is currently up 4% and sentiment shot up to become extremely bullish according to PredictWallStreet. Ford too was experiencing a few segments of bearish sentiment and you can see the price followed in the last dip of bearishness. As sentiment went up recently, so did the price, as expected. The question is how long can this last? Looks like Fords outlook is till 2009.

The debate rages on as Ford’s CEO recently announced they have enough cash to last them through 2009. The bailout question is as dynamic as it is complicated. The bailout would mean be the first of its kind for a private-equity firm. Between jobs losses and an American icon falling, sentiment on the question ranges from “Let em die” to “save em.” I’m not on either side. Clearly the issue is not that black and white. At this point, I feel we need to recognize the winners, and recognize the losers. Chrysler is a loser. Not only are the smallest of the three, but are least likely to cause a giant domino effect. This war is going to have its casualties and Chrysler would be the least tragic. As for Ford and GM…I’m still not quite sold on a bailout plan. There has to be some accountability, some responsibility for these companies and a bailout is a mere slap on the hand. This is not the ways of the free market economy we have set up in this country. Ford and GM need a strategy to prove they are worth our money: one that includes innovation, incentives for green vehicles, incentives for consumers to purchase such cars, and hey, maybe the threat of bankruptcy wouldn’t hurt speed this process along. I don’t know much about this industry, but I do know strategy and decision is always crucial. And selling a few of those private jets probably wouldn’t hurt.

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!

Black Friday Aftermath

If you didn’t brave the crowds last Friday, trust me, you weren’t missing much. While I fare pretty well in large crowds, the actual sales were nothing to write home about. I’m just glad I didn’t wake up at 4:00 am to save 20%. My time is worth more money than that.

Black Friday was said to set the tone for the rest of the week for Wall Street. If numbers were up, investors would be optimistic and confident. Yet Wall Street reveals once again investors uneasiness about the holiday shopping season. Despite Black Friday being mildly successful, investors are remaining cautious showing Friday wasn’t exactly indicative of the rest of week. The Dow is currently down 4.88% at 8397.88. Investors were feeling particularly bullish about DJIA gearing up for Thanksgiving weekend, but sentiment dramatically dropped according to predictors on PredictWallStreet to become more bearish, showing how cautious investors are. The DJIA is also forecasted today as well. You’ll have to click here to see what direction it’s been forecasted.

Once again rumors are a whirl that some deal between Yahoo! and Microsoft was going down. Apparently more fiction than fact, as Yahoo’s market cap is apparently $16 billion and the rumors reported Microsoft would acquire them for $20 billion. Something is going on at Yahoo!, nonetheless. Carl Icahn has been swooping up shares and sentiment for YHOO this week is currently becoming bullish, despite that you can see the price is dropping on PredictWallStreet’s sentiment chart when you overlay the price quote. In my opinion, this bullishness is due mainly to Yahoo!’s search for a new CEO, as investors remain hopeful for a turnaround. This bullishness may have been propped up somewhat by the MSFT deal rumors, but I believe it shows investors are optimistic about the company’s future regardless. Despite that Yahoo! is down right now, I have predicted UP for them. In this market, anything goes.

PredictWallStreet has published several forecasts this morning which have been beating the market by 65% in the past months. Most notably, the DJIA and NASDAQ are forecasted. To see what direction, you first must make a prediction to see the sentiment chart, poll results, and forecast results. You can also download the Forecast Ticker which will let you know immediately which stocks have been given signals. The tool can be kept on the desktop while you continue to do work uninterrupted.

Delicious
Digg
Facebook
Stumble It!