Sunny Side Up

Is it the best day of the year? The Dow closed up today a sizable 380 points on some good new from Citigroup. The bank says its operated at a profit the first two months of the year. Kiss, hug and pat on the back Citi! Investors ate up the good news, sending financial stocks up and in turn the entire market.

It’s been nice to see the sentiment meter for the major indices finally do some moving and shaking. Today, sentiment for the Dow and S&P 500 is bullish while the Nasdaq is still lingering in the bearish territory. Come and join the party Nassy, its nice up here!

PredictWallStreet has updated their white paper to keep you informed on the latest performance of the PWS forecasts. Just last year, the forecasts beat the market by 65%. Check out the white paper to see how you can use the forecasts to help you in your investing decisions. There is also an email sign up now so you can get daily market updates sent right to your email (or iPhone of Blackberry).

Google (GOOG) fell below 300 down prompting some investors to think “Is Google a good buy?” Well, Google is always a good buy isn’t it? It isnt? Wait, you mean Google is not always the best company on the face of the planet planning for world domination and therefore a good buy? Well, it depends. Google is cheap when you compare it to the days when it was almost 700 bucks. But the reality is Google will most likely never hit that mark again. Mainly because most companies never do, take Apple and Microsoft’s highs after their IPO’s. Not to mention, the market of Google is mainly saturated. There is plenty of room and potential for growth, but for Google to ever hit those high notes again they better be coming out with something better than the internet itself. Investors at PredictWallStreet are feeling pretty good about Google. 66% of the predictors have predicted up. One month sentiment shows that sentiment is slowly moving up to become more bullish after several days of being pretty neutral. Interestingly, looking at the Star Performers the 4 and 5 star predictors have predicted down while the rest of the star performers have predicted down. So whether you want to go with the majority here or the creme de le creme is a tricky decisions. I have predicted up for GOOG because they way the general market has performed today and I think it will keep up most stocks for a bit.

We have Cliff Bars in the office and I know I said they taste like cardboard before but I would like to retract that statement because the chocolate chip one is beginning to grow on me a little bit.

Starstruck

If I can’t be outside enjoying this beautiful day, well I’m gonna at least look at through the window in my office. There is nothing better than peering out your window to the outside sunny world. Nothing better except, well, actually being outside in that sunny world.

Monday’s are always hard for me. There even harder when I’ve lost an hour of sleep to some concept called Daylight Savings which personally I think is a misleading title. I just lost an hour, I didn’t save anything. But thank you Time because now I will have longer spring/summer days which I can’t complain about living in this beach town.

But like I said, Monday’s are hard so I left a few minutes early for work to get some Stahhhhbucks. That’s how my Dad says it. He thinks it’s funny. He’s also 6′2″ and has a white fluffy maltipoo that he walks daily. I think that’s funny. So I’m at Stahhhbucks and they have these new “meal deals.” A cup of (tall) coffee and a breakfast sandwich for $3.95. They get you with that 95 cents because your brain is like “Whoa only three dollars” but then you’re wallet is like “Nooo dude, four dollars.” But even at 5 cents under four dollars I really did think it was a great deal and happily ordered one. For the same price (seriously) you could get a meal at McDonald’s but the sandwiches at Starbucks are not only pretty looking, but taste better and are relatively healthier. I did the caloric math ( I just wanted to say caloric). The coffee comparison is debatable.

The reason I’m detailing my pre-work breakfast sojourn is because Starbucks (SBUX) gets a lot of heat for being inflexible in the current economy. I’ve blogged about these meal deals before. I did and do they think they are a good idea and I don’t necessarily think of them as weakening the brand image as a luxury coffee retailer. I mean they had me at “Coffee and Sandwich.” I don’t think any less of you Starbucks, I swear. In fact, I love you more for understanding me and my wallets needs. I wonder if investors will feel the same way…

Predictions on PredictWallStreet for Starbucks seem split. 57% of predictors predicted up for Starbucks. Now checking sentiment to see how investors fell towards SBUX I noticed that in the 3 month sentiment graph there is only one really visible period of bearishness where the sentiment line dips down into the red. Then changing the view to 1 month sentiment I can see things a little closer. Sentiment has been pretty rocky the past few days but has remained relativley neutral, with no large spikes into either bear or bull territory. Right now sentiment is sorta flat lining. My guess is investors are out to lunch ordering their meal deals right this second and haven’t yet predicted. But seriously, I realize something like meal deals isn’t going to have an astronomical effect on the stock but this coupled with their instant coffee line is sure to help SBUX. It’s opening their market to a new range of people looking for not JUST coffee in the morning, but actual food for breakfast. Lots of potential for growth. Some of us like to eat edible things in the morning and not drink our breakfasts, ya know?

I’m looking at the Star Performers for Starbucks. It’s interesting because the four-star rated predictors have predicted down for SBUX and even the three-star predictors are split. This situation makes me sort of of hesitant in my up prediction, but I remain a “glass is half full” kinda gal today. So we’ll see. My next journey: Via Instant Coffee.

Starbright, starlight, Sirius XM Radio something something something, in the night. Over the Weekend CEO Mel K. announced their debt obligations have finally been put to rest. RIP DEBT. From their Press Release: “These transactions resolve all of the uncertainty surrounding the company’s and its subsidiaries’ debt maturing in 2009.” The stock (SIRI) saw a nice gain so far on the news, but SIRI is notorious for dancing on any buzz, rumor, or hype. Anyhoo, just wanted to point out how crazy sentiment has been for the company on PredictWallStreet. Looking at one month sentiment you can see a bunch of green spikes and only one bearish endeavor. Look’s like investors are extremely hopeful for the future of this company. If you like SIRI, I’d get in now while they are still pretty cheap. I stand with my guard up still. It’s hard to discern herd mentality from true value this quickly. Make a prediction on SIRI to show how you truly feel about this stocks direction.

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Blockbuster, Bankbuster, Blockruptcy?

We’re so close…just..a..little…bit…further. The Dow almost hit 7000 today but lost it in the final moments of the trading day and closed about 125 points short. In any case, it was way up from yesterday’s disaster so that is something to smile about. Stocks finally moved higher today after a 5 day sell off frenzy. Investors are starting to look for bargains as the market tanks and prices are low. A homeowner plan and possible Chinese economic stimulus packaged were announced giving investors some much needed hope.

There have been a lot of rumors floating around on the blogosphere that Blockbuster may be filing for bankruptcy. Just yesterday shares of Blockbuster (BBI) fell 77% in lieu of a Bloomberg report the company was thinking about Chapter 11. Blockbuster recently hired a law firm to help them raise additional capital-an act suggesting they really are in trouble. Over the past year BBI shares are down 92%. Yikes. I think its pretty clear that even if the company is saying they aren’t in trouble, BBI shareholders are.

I wanted to see how exactly investors are feeling about Blockbuster this month on PredictWallStreet.com. Looking at the poll numbers, it appears 77% of users have predicted for BBI to close up compared to the 23% who predicted down. After making my prediction, I can see the rest of the prediction data. Under the sentiment tab, I click one month. Sentiment had been steadily crawling up, almost breaking into the extremely bullish zone and then drastically fell and is now on its way to become bearish. If you overlay the price quote (the blue line) you can see that the price also dropped really dramatically with sentiment. Looking at Star Performers I notice that the less accurate predictors (3 and 1 star) predicted up. The higher a persons star rating the more accurate they are in their predictions so a person with a lower star rating is less accurate. Because these people predicted up, it may be reasonable to assume they are wrong and predict in the opposite way they have predicted. What are your opinions on Blockbuster? Who still thinks this company has a chance facing competitors like NetFlix (NFLX)?

In other news, PredictWallStreet published a few forecasts today and one was for the SP500. I’m sure you can guess which direction it was forecasted to close at but to check click here and find out.

Also, if you have a Twitter account, you can follow PredictWallStreet for market updates and current sentiment and have them sent right to your phone! Name: predict. You’ll recognize the UpDown arrows.

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American Dow: Free Fallin

After yesterday’s market went a little bonkers, I though it would chill out a bit today but it seems Wall Street is still hungover from last night’s (morning’s) party. Party’s over Dow, time to take off the pointy hat.

I mean at least were only down 37 right? 37! It’s all relative. Because if this were even a year ago, down 37 points would be great news. Yet, when you’re below 8000, down anything is really bad. It seems as if the market is free falling and I’m beginning to wonder where it will stop. Maybe one day I will sign onto Yahoo! Finance and kaboom! It wont even exist. That’s not funny, actually.

Who is up today eh?

The solar sector has been struggling, as most investors consider the stocks high risk. I used to follow First Solar (FSLR) a lot in the beginning of this blog because they were at the frontier of low-cost production for the alternative energy field and saw consistent gains for weeks. First Solar is one of the few companies right now whose earnings beat consensus estimates, despite the notably weak solar sector. FSLR reported yesterday they made $1.61 a share this past quarter. Expectations were only $1.30 a share. They have been able to keep manufacturing costs down and had revenues ahead of estimates (well, they did reduce 2009 estimated by 10%, but estimates shmestimates). With Obama’s administration pushing alternative energy initiates, this company could really advance.

FSLR’s CEO, Michael Ahearn, said “In three to five years, the market outlook for solar has never been better, but the short-term outlook for the solar industry has never looked more difficult.”

So while FSLR may be a risky stock, it could very well be a good play if you know what your doing and are good at timing. To see how investors are feeling I looked at sentiment for FSLR on PredictWallStreet’s sentiment meter. First, you must make a prediction to see the data. You can always go back and change your prediction if you change your mind after looking at the data. Looking under the sentiment tab, one month, I see that sentiment is very green. This mean’s investors are feeling extremely bullish about FSLR. Looking at sentiment is helpful because if I see a dramatic change in investor sentiment, I can anticipate that the price will most likely shift accordingly. Looking at the poll results, a striking 80% of investors predicted that FSLR will close up. And lastly, looking at the Star Performers (the users on the site are rated on a star system by their accuracy in predictions) I see that all rated Star Performers predicted up. So, I can very well assume the price will move up.

I know I’m on that Apple diet, but just a real quick Apple snack. Apple was at the top of Fortunes Top 100 Most Admired Companies list. And investors love Apple-lookey here. Phew, ok that’s it. Back to the treadmill.

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I should of known today was going to be bad after I pressed snooze three times this morning. It was an inauspicious sign for the day, followed by spilled coffee in my lap while driving. If those incidents didn’t foreshadow today’s events accurately then the heavy rain all morning did. It truly was a Monday Mourning. Wall Street ate it hard this morning. Tumbled, slide, crashed, committed market suicide, whatever you wish to call it. The Dow broke 7,000 this morning for the first time since 1997-that’s 11 long years. Coupled with AIG posting $61.7 billion in quarterly losses (yikes!), the steep sell-off continued. For those who like to look for bottoms, I think this is a pretty good indicator things could and probably will get worse.

It’s no surprise then that sentiment for the DJIA, SP500 and NASDAQ fell completely bearish this morning. Processing real time predictions from million’s of investors, the real time sentiment meter at PredictWallStreet showed investors extremely bearish for all three indices.

I just tried to find at least one company that I have even heard of that was up today and I found none. So I guess that leaves who was down the least today.

The recession-bearer Apple is down 1.53%. Apple is not infallible, but despite haggard market conditions, they have fared pretty well. Apple reported positive results for Q1 and is continuing to innovate and introduce new products. Despite the slump in PC sales, Apple has been able to offset some of this downfall with their other products like the iPhone, App Store, iTunes and iPod. Although, there is speculation the iPod market has been pretty much saturated. Apple most likely needs to focus on getting customers to upgrade. It’s only a matter of time before our lives, homes and brains are running on Mac’s OS. It seems like their plan, anyway. I feel I am at liberty to talk about AAPL because I’ve been on an Apple diet lately (or I feel like I have been at least, but that’s the case with most diets). I’ve definitely binged one or twice in some previous posts, I know, I know. 69% of predictors on PredictWallStreet predicted up for Apple today. Sentiment is becoming more bullish. Looking at one month sentiment is looks like there have been more bullish up ticks then bearish. Any Apple fan will say “Now’s a good time to buy Apple!” I agree that Apple is relatively cheap, but I almost feel that with the way the market is going it could get cheaper. I would definitely wait this out if I were going to buy (which I’m not) despite the positive signs from the PredictWallStreet poll and sentiment.

Of course I had to check AIG just to see what was going on with their stock after posting such a staggering loss. I was ready to see them bleeding all over the PredictWallStreet widget but what I found was more surprising: a bunch of 0’s. As in their was no change. Granted AIG is pushing pennies at 45 cents, but I at least thought they would be down. I mean I guess they aren’t up either. And I guess it’s hard to fall when you’re already so low. It’s like kicking someone when they are already on the ground. AIG has over 250 predictions today! 77% of predictors predicted up for AIG. Don’t really understand what that’s about. And sentiment has been extremely bearish for the last week, pushing it in the red zone for weeks at a time and today, suddenly, sentiment shoots up and becomes almost extremely bullish? Now this I really don’t get. Can anyone enlighten me? My best guess is because the stock price is so low and because they just got awarded even more money in a bailout, they have nowhere else to go up. That seems pretty logical, but we know the market isnt exactly logical all the time.