Stimulus: The next question

The stimulus bill has been signed. More importantly, will it work?

Whether you like it or not, the main question now is how will it effect the country? There is no doubt it will, but to what extent its effects are felt at is the most pressing of questions. Some opponents are calling it a mini New Deal, which will only help prolong the depression, like FDR’s did in the 30’s. While I don’t know too many details about the bill itself, I can’t imagine it not creating employment opportunities. The infrastructure spending and medical research grants have no choice but to create jobs. And while the bill is certainly not perfect, I think its clear that doing nothing and letting the market work itself out is not gonna speed up its recovery. We know were screwed, but how long can we afford to be? The Dow fell to 7552 points today. Sentiment for Dow was bearish.

In other interesting market news, just last week Sirius XM (SIRI) was talking about filing bankruptcy as the company had millions of dollars of debt to pay back soon. But this week it seems SIRI is whistling to a different tune. The company has been rescued by John Malone’s Liberty Media Corporation (LMDIA). Liberty Media Corp will invest $530 million in loans in SIRI and receives 40% equity interest in the company. The loans will be made in a two part payment. While this is certainly great news, it must not be forgotten that SIRI’s massive amount debt still exists. If SIRI can see some cash flow however, they can put some of that debt to rest. Either way, many investors who have been holding onto SIRI are excited. SIRI had an amazing 532 predictions on PredictWallStreet. 86% of those predictors predicted that SIRI would close up. Sentiment for SIRI has also surged. Looking at the one month sentiment graph you can see that just last week sentiment was extremely bearish in the red zone and has suddenly shot up into the extremely bullish zone Tuesday. Looking at SIRI’s Accuracy, all rated Star Performers have predicted SIRI will close up. Judging from this information, I think its pretty obvious that my personal prediction would be UP as well. Clearly investors have regained their optimism in this company. Hopefully it is enough to hold SIRI up for awhile and they can report some positive numbers in the quarter to come.

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