I should of known today was going to be bad after I pressed snooze three times this morning. It was an inauspicious sign for the day, followed by spilled coffee in my lap while driving. If those incidents didn’t foreshadow today’s events accurately then the heavy rain all morning did. It truly was a Monday Mourning. Wall Street ate it hard this morning. Tumbled, slide, crashed, committed market suicide, whatever you wish to call it. The Dow broke 7,000 this morning for the first time since 1997-that’s 11 long years. Coupled with AIG posting $61.7 billion in quarterly losses (yikes!), the steep sell-off continued. For those who like to look for bottoms, I think this is a pretty good indicator things could and probably will get worse.

It’s no surprise then that sentiment for the DJIA, SP500 and NASDAQ fell completely bearish this morning. Processing real time predictions from million’s of investors, the real time sentiment meter at PredictWallStreet showed investors extremely bearish for all three indices.

I just tried to find at least one company that I have even heard of that was up today and I found none. So I guess that leaves who was down the least today.

The recession-bearer Apple is down 1.53%. Apple is not infallible, but despite haggard market conditions, they have fared pretty well. Apple reported positive results for Q1 and is continuing to innovate and introduce new products. Despite the slump in PC sales, Apple has been able to offset some of this downfall with their other products like the iPhone, App Store, iTunes and iPod. Although, there is speculation the iPod market has been pretty much saturated. Apple most likely needs to focus on getting customers to upgrade. It’s only a matter of time before our lives, homes and brains are running on Mac’s OS. It seems like their plan, anyway. I feel I am at liberty to talk about AAPL because I’ve been on an Apple diet lately (or I feel like I have been at least, but that’s the case with most diets). I’ve definitely binged one or twice in some previous posts, I know, I know. 69% of predictors on PredictWallStreet predicted up for Apple today. Sentiment is becoming more bullish. Looking at one month sentiment is looks like there have been more bullish up ticks then bearish. Any Apple fan will say “Now’s a good time to buy Apple!” I agree that Apple is relatively cheap, but I almost feel that with the way the market is going it could get cheaper. I would definitely wait this out if I were going to buy (which I’m not) despite the positive signs from the PredictWallStreet poll and sentiment.

Of course I had to check AIG just to see what was going on with their stock after posting such a staggering loss. I was ready to see them bleeding all over the PredictWallStreet widget but what I found was more surprising: a bunch of 0’s. As in their was no change. Granted AIG is pushing pennies at 45 cents, but I at least thought they would be down. I mean I guess they aren’t up either. And I guess it’s hard to fall when you’re already so low. It’s like kicking someone when they are already on the ground. AIG has over 250 predictions today! 77% of predictors predicted up for AIG. Don’t really understand what that’s about. And sentiment has been extremely bearish for the last week, pushing it in the red zone for weeks at a time and today, suddenly, sentiment shoots up and becomes almost extremely bullish? Now this I really don’t get. Can anyone enlighten me? My best guess is because the stock price is so low and because they just got awarded even more money in a bailout, they have nowhere else to go up. That seems pretty logical, but we know the market isnt exactly logical all the time.

Madoff Scandal lingers

It’s been a rainy weekend and I’m glad to see some sunshine although I know it’s short lived. I only like the rain when I sleep in.

The market returned from the weekend still a little edgy on the recent Madoff scandal. As more and more firms reveal to be effected by the investment manager, the attention has turned from the auto industry to Madoff madness. Stocks also dropped lower in anticipation of an earnings report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley.

PredictWallStreet published several forecasts today. These forecasts have been beating the market by 65% the past few months. I’m not gonna lie, there are definitely a few companies that are forecasted in which I have no clue what they do which means I probably won’t predict on them nor would I trade on them. I did notice Morgan Stanley is forecasted which is most likely due to their earnings report being eagerly waited for. Surprisingly the forecasts look pretty green today, despite the overall market being pretty draggy.

Google (GOOG) is in the headlines for blasting the Wall Street Journal on some bogus story they wrote. WSJ reported something about Google not favoring net neutrality anymore in which Google bitingly replied that the story was “wildly, dramatically overblown.” Currently investors are feeling bearish about Google although this seems contrast to the price. When I overlay the price quote, it is actually lies pretty high and seems to be moving up while sentiment is in the bearish red zone. I’m not exactly sure how to interpret this but my best guess would be that sentiment for this stock could be slow to catch up to the price. When looking at the one month sentiment, I can see that even when sentiment fell really low, the price stayed high so perhaps this stocks price isn’t as sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment.

Apple (AAPL) shares took a hit this morning from a downgrade from Goldman’s. AAPL shares were down 2% this morning. Apparently Apple is too expensive compared to the slow down in consumer spending and that Apple has shipped less than expected amounts of products. Checking out Apple on PredictWallStreet I can see that that under the one month sentiment tab sentiment was recently extremely bearish, then moved up and is now back on its way to bear territory. Price seems to be following sentiment as it should be. Apple is normally pretty responsive to bad (or good) press and I have predicted down today for Apple given the Goldman’s downgrade.

I just noticed that my predicting accuracy is down again and has been yo yo-ing for some time now. As long as I stay above 50% I am happy although being at 54% at one point was pretty sweet. I stopped predicting on such a wide range of stocks and only predicted on the few I’m most familiar with. Let’s see if that boosts my percentage.

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Lay on the lay-offs

On this Monday morning rally the Dow gained 300 points on news of Obama’s plan for a huge infrastructure spending plan. It will be the largest US public works spending program since the interstate highway program. The infrastructure spending is expected to held aid the suffering economy by supplying thousands of jobs building schools and various construction problems. Investors are optimistic of the plan. As I check PredictWallStreet to make my usual predictions, I’m seeing a lot of green.

RIMM is predicted to close up today and have gained almost 6% today, although I think this has more to do with the general rally of the market than RIMMs performance itself. The storm is officially a piece of junk. And whether you personally have had a great experience with it or are among the hoards of bloggers who think it’s a piece, it doesn’t matter. The reputation is out and it isn’t a good one. The buzz surrounding the phone didnt take long to effect RIMM’s sentiment either. Looking at one month sentiment, you can see it fell to become extremely bearish.

While the price has moved up, I hardly doubt it will sustain with such a negative sentiment. As the holidays approach, perhaps there will be more iPhones under the tree than Storms.

Also, as you scour you’re normal finance sites I’m sure you have noticed the countless headlines screaming “XYZ to cut 15,000 jobs.” Such numbers and diction would lead any reasonable person to believe that this company is doing bad. You might also think hey, this company isn’t making enough money to keep their employee’s and I should most definitely head over to PredictWallStreet and predict down for this company. Ok, maybe that wouldn’t be the first thought of a reasonable person, but for blog sake, it’s the general picture one would assume, yes?

But you, my friend, are no average person. You are the informed investor. And if you take a different perspective you can actually seem some light in such cut-offs. Right now our playing field is “bad.” I mean, really, what company is doing that outstanding? Save a few, most companies are experiencing downturns due to the economy. So now that everyone is playing in the same “bad” playing field, it’s going to be the companies who make the FIRST efforts to correct and accommodate such losses who come out as winners. So, all emotions aside, it’s terribly unfortunate so many people are loosing their jobs (not to mention the larger macro implications this has on our economy, but my logic here is for the narrow minded investor). Yet, from the perspective of an investor concerned about his portfolio, this means more retained earrings and more profit for these companies. Ya ya I know, eventually this sort thing will catch up with these companies; as less supply also means less product to less revenue. But for the short-run these companies are taking the first steps in handling the downturn. Companies that take longer to accommodate our new economy could be hurt worse in the end. It’s about adaption.

The market is inevitably emotional right now, but it doesn’t have to be all sad faces and sadgusyontradingfloor. I guess I’m feeling particularly bullish today, can you tell? Anyhoo, before I predict, I’m checking headlines, I’m checking sentiment and without getting wrapped up in anything to emotional, I will make my predictions.

I feel like I got very economical in this post. It’s finals week, I guess I’m just in that state of mind.

Black Friday Aftermath

If you didn’t brave the crowds last Friday, trust me, you weren’t missing much. While I fare pretty well in large crowds, the actual sales were nothing to write home about. I’m just glad I didn’t wake up at 4:00 am to save 20%. My time is worth more money than that.

Black Friday was said to set the tone for the rest of the week for Wall Street. If numbers were up, investors would be optimistic and confident. Yet Wall Street reveals once again investors uneasiness about the holiday shopping season. Despite Black Friday being mildly successful, investors are remaining cautious showing Friday wasn’t exactly indicative of the rest of week. The Dow is currently down 4.88% at 8397.88. Investors were feeling particularly bullish about DJIA gearing up for Thanksgiving weekend, but sentiment dramatically dropped according to predictors on PredictWallStreet to become more bearish, showing how cautious investors are. The DJIA is also forecasted today as well. You’ll have to click here to see what direction it’s been forecasted.

Once again rumors are a whirl that some deal between Yahoo! and Microsoft was going down. Apparently more fiction than fact, as Yahoo’s market cap is apparently $16 billion and the rumors reported Microsoft would acquire them for $20 billion. Something is going on at Yahoo!, nonetheless. Carl Icahn has been swooping up shares and sentiment for YHOO this week is currently becoming bullish, despite that you can see the price is dropping on PredictWallStreet’s sentiment chart when you overlay the price quote. In my opinion, this bullishness is due mainly to Yahoo!’s search for a new CEO, as investors remain hopeful for a turnaround. This bullishness may have been propped up somewhat by the MSFT deal rumors, but I believe it shows investors are optimistic about the company’s future regardless. Despite that Yahoo! is down right now, I have predicted UP for them. In this market, anything goes.

PredictWallStreet has published several forecasts this morning which have been beating the market by 65% in the past months. Most notably, the DJIA and NASDAQ are forecasted. To see what direction, you first must make a prediction to see the sentiment chart, poll results, and forecast results. You can also download the Forecast Ticker which will let you know immediately which stocks have been given signals. The tool can be kept on the desktop while you continue to do work uninterrupted.

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Turkey Run

It’s hard for me to think about anything but food right now. Not only do I get to go home to mom cooking in a few hours, but tomorrow is Thanksgiving. I really couldn’t ask for more. I’ll try my best to focus on the stock market, but visions of turkeys and stuffing are dancing in my head.

Wall Street is seeing gains again today after yesterday’s rally. Investors are likely feeling calmed by Obama’s pledge to to deal with the economy as soon as he steps into office. While we’re looking at the risk of running almost a trillion dollar deficit (does that number even mean anything when it gets that high anymore?), the outcome of doing nothing would prove to be much worst. At a time like this, it comes down to faith and hope. And yes, we can.

Weather forecast: rainy. PredictWallStreet forecast: green. Only a few forecasts today, but they are all up!

Unfortunately, I’m not really familiar with three of the companies. And while I could spend my time researching them, its more effective and useful for me to just stick to the stocks I do know. And that company today would be First Solar, Inc. (FSLR). As I have said before, it is more beneficial for me to predict on companies I’m more affiliated with so I can practice my strategy and improve it.

Uh oh! I just looked at my star rating on FSLR and it turns out I’m only a two star predictor for that security. I guess I thought I was better affiliated than I was. This just goes to show you that even if you understand a company and its business very well, this doesn’t nececassirly translate to knowing its stock and understanding its trends. So while I like what FSLR does, I clearly need to practice predicting on it so I can better understand the stock.

Today I’m looking at the forecast which says up. But I also want to use some other indicators to assure me that that is indeed a good prediction. I like to use sentiment to back up my predictions. Looking at one month sentiment I can see there have been a few days of bearish dips but suddenly sentiment has shot up into the bullish territory. The sentiment line actually looks pretty crazy for this stock. Interestingly enough, even though sentiment was rising up, the price was actually down at this point. Now that sentiment has become extremely bullish, the price has rose minimally. So I can see here that maybe sentiment and price for FSLR don’t have as strong a dependency on each other as some other companies. And I can take into consideration that the price moves most when sentiment becomes extremely bullish or bearish and that the price is not so sensitive to minimal shifts in investor sentiment.

Hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving!

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Take the party hat off Tuesday

Thanksgiving is so close I can almost touch it. I make the five hour drive down south tomorrow with nothing but me, my iPod and the 101. I most definitely hate that drive, which is why I haven’t done it in over six months, but I’ll be running on hunger and caffeine so it shouldn’t be too bad. Plus, I can’t wait to talk stocks over turkey and cranberry. My new thing is to sound as smart and pretentious as possible to my parents so they know how much I’m learning in college. It’s all part of a bigger shceme to get grad school paid for. 

After yesterday’s rally, the market seems to have pulled back a bit. Investors are cashing in Tuesday, despite government plans to aid consumer lending companies and a deteriorating credit market. While investors sell off, they remain positive: the major indices show bullish sentiment according to PredictWallStreet’s real-time sentiment meter. This seems to be a good sign; while investors may be cashing in, they remain optimistic about the markets future and aren’t merely trying to pull out fast. 

Apple (AAPL) rallied about 12.5% yesterday. And while this is definitely news to feel good about, it also is part of the ebb and tide of today’s choppy market. One day you’re on top, and the next ya want a bailout. So, rejoice Apple kids, but don’t leave the party hat’s on for too long. PredictWallStreet has forecasted Apple to close down today. The leader in stock predictions, PredictWallStreet has over 115 predictions right now on Apple and 46% of those predictors think agree Apple will close down. Judging from yesterday’s giant rally and this weeks bearish sentiment, I’m making my prediction for down as I have found in the past Apple only sustains gains for a little while before falling again. I can see that looking at one month sentiment, AAPL has been very touchy in the past month, jumping from bull to bear territory fast.

Yahoo! (YHOO) is also forecasted to close down today. Although, 68% of predictors have predicted up for the company, I noticed that overall sentiment this month was extremely bearish, then bullish and has now run flat…kinda like the company, how cute. But anyway, price has been all over the place this morning but my guess  will be it ends the day in the red. Not only is Yahoo suffering firm specific draw backs, but its facing a deteriorating market hat only helps bog it down more. Its like there is no icing on the cake, no icing on top of a already yucky flavored cake. Wait, does that even make sense? It’s tough times for Yahoo! and it seems as if they’re gonna need  super-hero management to drag them out of single digits at this time. 

Enjoy the rest of the trading day, you’ve got 8 minutes. Gobble, gobble.

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Mondays Rally-long lived or die fast?

It’s nice to see a Monday morning rally on Wall Street. The DOW is currently above 8000, always a good sign. With the news of the Citigroup rescue, stocks surged this morning. Obama is also pledging to get an economic rescue plan approved as soon as possible. Such optimism is refreshing when not only our markets but public sentiment is drowning in negativity.

PredictWallStreet’s forecasts have been beating the market by 65% during the 08 meltdown (9/15/08-11/10/08). In our current situation, the markets are driven heavily by emotion. PredictWallStreet’s forecasts not only outperform the markets, they also outperform forecasts that are based on past performance. You can read more about it here.

First Solar Inc. (FSLR) has been forecasted today to close down. Now normally I have felt pretty confident in there position in the solar energy sector, but lately this sector has seen some fading. FSLR derives more than half its sales in Europe, mainly Germany. Germany just announced they were officially in a recession. In there latest conference call they announced all solar projects outside of Germany have stopped. People are loosing faith in solar companies–sentiment for FSLR has recently become bearish and they have a down forecast. What do you think FSLR’s immediate future holds? In my opinion, when Obama comes to office in January, I think alternative energy will get a much needed kick start as a lot of the focus of Obama’s campaign will be towards going green.

I’ve been waiting for the release of Research in Motion’s (RIMM) Blackberry Storm for quite some time and it has been an utterly disappointing experience. I too got caught up in the buzz of the “first touch screen Blackberry” and while I still like the idea and the phone, I can’t help but be extremely angry at how Research in Motion is handling the entire production and sale of this phone. Lets see, lets heavy promo this phone, make a huge deal out of it, push back the release date days, then weeks, then months, make customers even more agitated, and then I’ve got a great idea, lets only give Verizon stores between 10-200 phones each so they will sell out within the first 2 hours. Brilliant RIMM, absolutely. It just seems like bad business to not be able to keep up with a demand you created. Apparently the next production of phones wont even be available till the middle of December. Am I a little bitter I don’t have a Storm in my hand right now? Yes, I am.

Research in Motions stocks may be riding this Storm wave right now, but we’ll see how long it lasts as customers grow weary and completely frustrated. Sentiment for RIMM is bullish now, but in the past RIMM has proven to be an extremely dippy and volatile company that is often hard to predict. I’m curious to see where they will be in January. I’m predicting UP today because I know RIMM is still a fire with Storm buzz, although at heart I still feel pretty bearish about this company. I

Bulls and Bears, Oh my!

It’s Monday and like every other Monday for the past couple months, Wall Street is up in arms over some new report of declining something or other. Despite a good industrial production reading, investors are still contemplating and worrying about a automaker bailout, job cuts at Citigroup Inc. and a continuing decrease in sales for some of the nations top retailers.

Despite weeks of bearish sentiment, there seems to be an upturn for the NASDAQ, DJIA and SP500. PredictWallStreet’s real-time sentiment meter shows bullish sentiment for the three, using processes data from millions of predictors. Let’s see how long this sentiment can hold though.

I was checking My Page today on PredictWallStreet and was really impressed to see that my accuracy rating has gone up to 54.1%  I have not only become better at predicting, but have learned how to utilize the tools on the site to help increase my prediction accuracy. Between using the forecasts for the basis of my predictions and also looking at the direction of sentiment, I’ve become more affiliated with stocks and am able to make better predictions. A few months ago I was predicting the majority of my picks wrong, but now I’m correct more than half the time! It’s amazing to watch your progress and see how far you can come in so little time with just a little practice.

There are a lot of forecasts today for company’s that I don’t really know much about. I have found that it is best for me to predict on companies that I have a higher star rating for, which is coincidentally the company’s I know most about. If I predict on company’s for which I have less than a 2-star rating, I usually am wrong so I like to focus on the ones I am better at.

General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today. I’m normally bullish on this company which seems to coincide with the forecast. I’m also a four star predictor on GE and therefore know I have a strong affiliation with them. I have predicted up today for GE based on the forecast and sentiment. Poll results show that 72% of predictors have predicted up for GE today and looking at one month sentiment I can see that even though it is bearish now, it seems to be taking an upward turn. The sentiment chart also shows that GM has experienced some extremely bearish dips right before seeing an upsurge into bull territory.

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Monday Mourning: GOOG, T, FSLR

With the anniversary of Black Tuesday a few days away, investors can’t help but be nervous of the axiom “history repeats itself.” Stocks fluctuate this morning as investors try to figure out the direction of rate cuts, a global economic recession and the government now buying stakes in nine major banks in an attempt to prop up the banking sector. With so many uncertain expectations, its hard to discern a clear direction, however. PredictWallStreet’s sentiment meter for the NASDAQ, DJIA, and SP500 is clearly bearish right now, reflecting such investor doubt.

Google (GOOG) is forecasted to close up today, according to PredictWallStreet. Sentiment for GOOG has been rather bearish this month but appears to be gaining some momentum. Several analysts believe tech shares are trading at major discounts and I agree. I think the best way to monetize the internet right now is through search and GOOG has clearly optimized this chance. In my opinion, I think GOOG is selling at a deal right now and in the long run would be a good investment despite any volatility its experiencing right now. But hey, what securities aren’t experiencing that?

AT&T (T) is also forecasted to close up today. AT&T recently reported revenues that met expectations; a good percentage of this propped by iPhone sales, despite what a lot of people think regarding distribution rights. I think AT&T has positioned itself for growth and will continue to grab new customers with there 3G network and smartphones. Without getting too obsessed with the current emotion regarding the general market, AT&T is looking to be a sound company with good cash flow despite everything else.

And a company I used to really like but took a turn for the worst, First Solar Inc. (FSLR) is forecasted to close up today. I bought this company (in a online simulation of course) when the alternative energy companies were all a buzz and gaining lots of momentum to shortly crash hard weeks later. Now its not that I don’t think these companies are still great, because I do, its just I jumped on bandwagon that I should of recognized was a typical investor folly. While I believe the company has room to grow, it may be hard to do so in our given environment. Nevertheless, if you can manage to get this company at good price, perhaps it will fare well when “recession” isn’t such a buzz word. Sentiment for FSLR is a little bumpy, but seems to be general becoming stronger. So basically, if you’re a young investor and have lots of time to spare. In this case, time is indeed on your side.

Make sure you check out all the forecasts for today; they’re are a ton and there all showing green!

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Be greedy when other’s are fearful: EBAY, GE, WMT, MOT, BRK.B, KMP…

In Warren Buffet’s latest op-ed he writes “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” And it’s no secret that right now even the most seasoned of investors are indeed fearful. But while some may see the this as an inopportune time, Buffet finds a way to inject his persevering optimism into the situation we face today revealing that opportunity does exist; you just have to find the windows.

Buffet likens the volatility of today’s market, perhaps even the next months or years market, as merely “hiccups” in the lifespan of our economy. While no one can exactly predict the market’s mood in the short-term, history shows that in the long run stable companies will show profits. Essentially, the market will move up in the long run, perhaps even before sentiment and the economy turns up.

Looking for opportunities can be tricky, and even more scary when your own money is involved. Practicing and testing my investing strategy is a great place to start and I can do so by predicting on companies I’m looking at on PredictWallStreet.com

Today they have released several forecasts which are great starting places for new and even veteran investors. By looking at the forecasts I get a more accurate sense of which way the stock will be heading. I then like to look at sentiment to see how investors are feeling in general. In times like these, the markets can really be effected by emotion. It’s a roller coaster of love (or hate) out there. And lastly, once I’ve aggregated the information I need, I make a prediction on the company and check back the next day to see how accurate I am in determining this stocks movement. So far I have had the most accuracy in determining Research In Motion (RIMM). Yup, that’s me, Kris 23, 5 star predictor on RIMM.

eBay Inc. (EBAY) has been forecasted today to close down. After releasing there Q3 results they showed decelerating charts heading into Q4. But, drawing upon Buffets conclusions, I believe these problems regarding eBay to be more macro/market than firm specific. In my opinion, I think we may see eBay down for awhile, with a temporary pop due to the holidays.  In the long run, I believe this still to be a profitable company. Until then, I have to agree that I predict eBay to close down. Timing here is the more crucial aspect.

General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today. About 83% of the 120 predictions believe GE will close up today as well. Sentiment for GE has shown dips of extremely bearish sentiment with an upsurge into  bull territory around the 16th of this month. I believe sentiment to become stronger even though it looks pretty bearish right now. I’m predicting up for today.

I’ve written about Wal-Mart (WMT) a few times in my past few posts. They are forecasted to close up today. I’ve predicted them to close up was well. Sentiment appears to be pretty neutral but may be slowly starting to become more bearish. I stand by my mini analysis a few weeks ago that consumers are flocking to anything “discount” and Wal-Mart is at the mother ship of discount grocery/retailer. While you may not be a fan on there ethics, it’s desperate times for some.

There are a ton of other forecasts to check out here.  I just write about the few companies that interest me most and who’s products I’m most familiar with. If I’m not exactly sure what kind of business a company is in, I probably wont know much about predicting the direction of the company either. I’ve found that companies who’s products I’ve actually held and have more affiliation with, the better I am at predicting. Probably why I’m so good at RIMM. My cell phone is almost glued to my hand and I guarantee you I can text faster than you can talk 🙂

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