Blockbuster, Bankbuster, Blockruptcy?

We’re so close…just..a..little…bit…further. The Dow almost hit 7000 today but lost it in the final moments of the trading day and closed about 125 points short. In any case, it was way up from yesterday’s disaster so that is something to smile about. Stocks finally moved higher today after a 5 day sell off frenzy. Investors are starting to look for bargains as the market tanks and prices are low. A homeowner plan and possible Chinese economic stimulus packaged were announced giving investors some much needed hope.

There have been a lot of rumors floating around on the blogosphere that Blockbuster may be filing for bankruptcy. Just yesterday shares of Blockbuster (BBI) fell 77% in lieu of a Bloomberg report the company was thinking about Chapter 11. Blockbuster recently hired a law firm to help them raise additional capital-an act suggesting they really are in trouble. Over the past year BBI shares are down 92%. Yikes. I think its pretty clear that even if the company is saying they aren’t in trouble, BBI shareholders are.

I wanted to see how exactly investors are feeling about Blockbuster this month on PredictWallStreet.com. Looking at the poll numbers, it appears 77% of users have predicted for BBI to close up compared to the 23% who predicted down. After making my prediction, I can see the rest of the prediction data. Under the sentiment tab, I click one month. Sentiment had been steadily crawling up, almost breaking into the extremely bullish zone and then drastically fell and is now on its way to become bearish. If you overlay the price quote (the blue line) you can see that the price also dropped really dramatically with sentiment. Looking at Star Performers I notice that the less accurate predictors (3 and 1 star) predicted up. The higher a persons star rating the more accurate they are in their predictions so a person with a lower star rating is less accurate. Because these people predicted up, it may be reasonable to assume they are wrong and predict in the opposite way they have predicted. What are your opinions on Blockbuster? Who still thinks this company has a chance facing competitors like NetFlix (NFLX)?

In other news, PredictWallStreet published a few forecasts today and one was for the SP500. I’m sure you can guess which direction it was forecasted to close at but to check click here and find out.

Also, if you have a Twitter account, you can follow PredictWallStreet for market updates and current sentiment and have them sent right to your phone! Name: predict. You’ll recognize the UpDown arrows.

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Stimulus Plan, Version 9858372

One day it’s 800 billion, the next is 900 and now it’s 789. I must admit, it’s a little confusing to follow the stimulus bills countless drafts. This morning, however, lawmakers announced their agreement on $789 billion stimulus plan to be signed by President Obama that is designed to create 3.5 million jobs. So how did Wall Street take the news? Stocks turned higher this morning but slowly began to lower in the afternoon, the Dow is still below 8000. Investors are eager for any measure that the economy is going to recover and it shows in their sentiment. This real-time sentiment meter shows bullish sentiment for the Dow, Nasdaq and SP500. Looks like investors are optimistic about the effects of the stimulus plan helping the economy.

It’s been quite a day for Research In Motion (RIMM). After being downgraded by analysts their price dropped 16%. Fortunately, RIMM is in a stable financial position but investors are worried about them selling more lower margin phones and less higher margin phones. With a price drop that steep you would expect to see sentiment drop but it actually is turned up and is heading to become more bullish. Is this price drop simply an overreaction of the market? The highest rated Star Performers on the widget under the Accuracy tab are split in the directions they predicted for RIMM but 4-star and 3-star predictors all predicted up. I had originally predicted down on RIMM thinking their was no way they could recover from a drop that big but after looking at sentiment and the Star Performers predictions, I think I may go with the wisdom of the crowd and see how that plays out.

I really haven’t thought about Sirius XM (SIRI) a lot lately, mostly because of their lackluster performance after the merge of the two companies. But after seeing them on the Top 15 Companies that Might Not Survive 2009 list I wanted to take a look at where they are at. It was kinda hard to stay involved watching a company who’s price was literally a penny at one point. There are rumors Sirius XM is preparing to file bankruptcy (not surprised, these rumors surfaced in December) and speculation that a potential partnership deal could be in the pipeline with Echostar CEO Charles Ergen. If Sirius does file bankruptcy it will be a huge loss not only to shareholders but to CEO Mel Karmazin who invested $2.7million in Sirius. There are over 306 predictions right now on SIRI at PredictWallStreet! 59% of users think SIRI will close up. Sentiment is extremely bullish right now and has been for the past week. The highest rated predictors under the Accuracy tab have all predicted UP. So how is that with all this positive signals, the stock still managed to close down today 51%? Well, mostly likely because one giant negative signal most likely overshadowed these: Chapter 11. I guess the sayings true, big tree fall hard. Or something like that…I get my idioms confused as a result of a mother who used them every other sentence.

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Amazon: Optimisitc or Unrealistic?

Hello friends! Hope everyone had a nice, rainy weekend. Looks like we finally had a positive week in the market. And while I’ve learned to never get too excited on good news these days as it’s usually fleeting fast, I will take a moment to relish in this one positive article. Ahhh.

Amazon has been getting a lot of attention lately for being this amazing bargain. It’s critics say its overvalued. I say who the heck owns a Kindle? While Amazon hasn’t exactly released figures on the sale of the Kindle, every analyst and journalist likes to point to the Kindle’s success as a piece of the Amazon success puzzle. Yet, I have never seen one in real life. I’ve never even heard of people talk about them in real life. I doubt half my friends know what they are and would most likely laugh when I told them what and how expensive it is. But I digress. I would be cautious of Amazon. AMZN is expected to earn $1.48 in 2009 and $1.90 in 2010, a growth rate 28% . That number seems highly optimistic in a recession, especially when old super stars like GOOG, AAPL and RIMM are expected to see 15% earnings growth in 2010. It’s no doubt Amazon looks attractive right now. They closed up today and sentiment was bearish last week but appears to be becoming more bullish. Im curious to see how this lasts as more and more bloggers seems to be bashing AMZN’s valuation. The highest rated predictor on Amazon has actually predicted UP while the other less accurate predictors have predicted down, interestingly. You can find this under the Accuracy>Star Performers tab.

All those people loosing their jobs, are they really signing onto Amazon to spend their diminishing paychecks on CD’s, movies, and the Kindle 2?

What is that Mr. Buffett? I can’t quite hear you. Oh ya “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.”

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Mind on my money, and my money on my mind

My headband is too tight again this morning. It’s like having a headache is so much cuter when you have a bow in your hair.

As I try to figure out what exactly is happening in the market and the bailout money, I can feel my head pounding a little more. The government is now buying $250 million worth of shares in the nations leading banks in an effort to unclog credit markets. The stock market continues to fluctuate this morning after slightly rebounding yesterday and remaining above 9000 today. But don’t call last week a bottom yet, a lot of analysts warn, we’re not out of the woods by any means.

Nice to see that sentiment for the major indices has remained relatively strong this morning and that yesterday was not some temporary spike. PredictWallStreet reports that sentiment for the DJIA, NASDAQ and SP500 is either bullish or extremely bullish. Clicking on the Community Leaders link at the top I can check community sentiment for the overall market and it appears that about 80% of predictors predicted the markets will go up today. It seems as if the government aid and bailout promises are indeed restoring some faith to consumers and investors.

Now, I want to mention this earlier in my post than at the bottom because who knows how many of you read till the end. Every week PredictWallStreet holds a Prediction Contest giving away $300.00, $100.00 and $25.00 and all you even if have to do to be eligible is make an account, join the contest, and predict. Seriously, every week. For some of you, $300.00 may be more than you make in the market in a week anyway 🙂 I know for me, as a newbie, that’s the case anyway. The contest is great because not only do you have the chance to win some effortless money, but its practice! If you’re not exactly ready to trade in the real market just yet, like me, you can test  your ideas by making predictions on PredictWallStreet to see if your predictions would of been accurate. Its a great way to test trading ideas and, simultaneously you are entered to win the contest. The main idea of the contest is to see how much money the stocks you predicted on would of made in a simulated trading. So if you’re already predicting, great! If not, join the site and contest and try your skills (or luck) out.

So far this morning I’ve made a few predictions. This is my page. I’m trying out a new angle of being consistent in my predictions and have thus made all UP predictions for AAPL, BAC, MER, MS, and MTU. I’ve predicted up for most of the banks on news of the $250 million buyout of shares for the leading banks. So far, only MER and MS are up but it is the middle of the day and trading always seems to get a little crazy at this time. I’m going to try to not second guess myself and leave my predictions till the end of the day. I know most of my prediction are based on general news and public information rather than a concrete analysis, but give me a break. I’m only on chapter 6 in my investment class and sometimes that buzz can be just as helpful.

I haven’t looked at Research in Motion (RIMM) in awhile. On my account homepage it says I am most accurate at predicting that stock. Research in Motion recently released there new Blackberry Storm. Have you seen the commercial? It’s pretty cute and intriguing. The Storm isn’t exactly perfect, nor does it blow the iPhone out of the water, but it sure does enhance RIMM’s position by providing improved features and user experience. From a marketing perspective, the only problem I see with RIMM is that they produce a new phone so often that it becomes hard for the trendy consumer to stay just that: trendy. By the time you have bought the latest phone, a newer version is on its way. I think some of the success of the iPhone has come from the fact that it has no direct competitors produced from Apple. When you buy one, you have the one and only iPhone. It’s often hard for me to discern what Blackberry I think is more advantageous. I like the Storm, I like the Pearl, I like Curve. I like them all! But the brand message gets confused, a huge no no in marketing consistency.  It’s likely the Blackberry’s target consumer is someone who is savvy, trendy and professional- someone on top of there work.. and the latest phone.  It’s hard to stay at the top of that game when  Research in Motion keeps ousting you. One could argue that RIMM is simply providing a variety for it consumers which is equally as important. But from a competitive standpoint, RIMM is not only competing against the iPhone, they’re now competing against themselves too. That’s my two cents anyway. As for fundamentals of the company, I know little to nothing but based on my simple customer perspective analysis, I’m predicting down for RIMM today. Looks like 88% of predictors disagree with me and sentiment is relativley strong. Guess we’ll have to wait and see.

I’m shooting another video blog today. If you missed the last one head over to PredictWallstreet to watch it. Send in your own videos of how you use the widget and you could be featured on the site too!

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Another bad day in the market, another bailout

I didn’t have any coffee this morning and man am I feeling it. Its like someone punched you in the head and then told you to get up and go to work. Is this what a coffee-less lifestyle feels like? Because if loving coffee is so wrong, I don’t want to be right.

If Jennifer Lopez was a stock, her ticker symbol would be JLO. If Valero had stock, which it does, its ticker symbol would be VRO. I finally shorted my Valero stocks today. The profit was downright measly, but the practice was priceless. I think in a market like this it would be easier to find the companies that are going to go down so being particularly skilled at shorting could be really useful. I fully understand the concept now, I just need to work on my timing.

PredictWallStreet has published more forecasts today. Apple (AAPL) is forecasted to close up today surprisingly. Even after the AIG bailout, 95% of stocks in the S&P 500 are posting losses. Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), and Merrill Lynch (MER) are forecasted to close down. Sentiment for Bank of America is extremely bullish right now. The sentiment meter on the front page also shows sentiment for the major indices. The NASDAQ has moved up into the bullish part of the meter. There don’t seem to be to many buyers out in the market right now, but judging by sentiment it seems investors are still hopeful. Even with all the uncertainty and even though no one is buying, maybe this is still the time to buy while prices are so low. Buy low, sell high, right?

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Recipe for Disaster

Is this a joke? I cant tell if Colonel Sanders is pulling one over on the general public. KFC recently reported to be moving there ultra top secret Original Recipe for the first time in 76 years and has hired top security to guard the precious cargo. Going so far as to have the briefcase its being transported in handcuffed to a trusted individual. I mean this is some serious business here. So the question is who exactly is trying to steal this recipe? Evil arch nemesis Popeyes? I have to give it to them for creating a clever publicity stunt however.

I went to sign onto my account this morning at PredictWallStreet.com and noticed that they have published 8 forecasts scrolling across the top of the page! The forecasts are the creme de la creme of information on the website because they are proven to be more accurate. So checking out the forecast page I can see that General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today and Research in Motion (RIMM) is forecasted to close down. I actually sold the shares I had of both these companies a few weeks back, but if I still had an interest in buying RIMM I would know to wait until either tomorrow morning or the end of the day to get it at a cheaper price. And if I was thinking about selling my GE shares this morning I would know to hold out a little bit longer so I could sell my shares when it closes up today and get the maximum profit. Now these forecasts aren’t 100%, but then again what is in Wall Street? However, they are extremely useful tools and can really help in guiding me in my investing decisions. I like them because they are straightforward. The price of this is either gonna be more or less. Thats it. And then I can make my own free will decision with that information. No analysis, no staring at a chart, just simple raw facts.

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Google prepares for World Domination, plans to invade the brain through telecommunication by Xmas 2008

For the most part, I like Yahoo’s! front page news stories- they told me Russia was fighting with Georgia, that lay off season has begun, and that Michael Phelps eats 12,000 calories a day. I respect the array of stories, because frankly I had to get out a map for that Russia/Georgia one and the Phelps breaks keep things interesting. Seriously 12,000? That’s a lot of Wheaties.

Hello world. Hello Bear market. Hibernation is over I presume. Lot of red today smacked all over the market. If I was more skilled in my investing qualities, I would be shorting all over the place right now but from the warnings of peers and every online financial site, I’ll leave the shorting to the pro’s and chalk it up in my goals board.

As I was browsing around on PredictWallStreet this morning I found an interesting article pinned on Google’s sentiment graph. Clickity click here. Personally, I have never liked T-Mobile, as I have found them to have the worst reception out of all carriers. But a deal like this could be incentive to strengthen there satellites and is with out a doubt good news for the number 4 operator in the United States. Perhaps this is the time to start looking at T-Mobiles parent company Deutsche Telekom AG (DT) as holiday season is around the corner and the phone is set to launch around October. Right now sentiment is pretty normal for DT. If you want to see the sentiment graph, go make a prediction first on DT to see the chart. Lately I have been predicting and then checking the sentiment graph only to figure out I changed my mind on which direction the stock is going to go. Fortunately, there is a change prediction link at the top of the widget so fickle minds like me can have a re-do.

Suprisingly SIRI has an overwhelmingly large number of up predictions. About 72% of users predicted up. I predicted down based on the downish dips SIRI has seen in the last few weeks. I believe these to be temporary, but that we should still see SIRI down for some time until all this debt converting is figured out. I’m curious to check back tomorrow and see if my brain or the collective was correct.

The lack of funny in this post is even boring me so I apologize, but its been a slow Monday. Hopefully Tuesday is a little more tumultuous.

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