Stimulus Plan, Version 9858372

One day it’s 800 billion, the next is 900 and now it’s 789. I must admit, it’s a little confusing to follow the stimulus bills countless drafts. This morning, however, lawmakers announced their agreement on $789 billion stimulus plan to be signed by President Obama that is designed to create 3.5 million jobs. So how did Wall Street take the news? Stocks turned higher this morning but slowly began to lower in the afternoon, the Dow is still below 8000. Investors are eager for any measure that the economy is going to recover and it shows in their sentiment. This real-time sentiment meter shows bullish sentiment for the Dow, Nasdaq and SP500. Looks like investors are optimistic about the effects of the stimulus plan helping the economy.

It’s been quite a day for Research In Motion (RIMM). After being downgraded by analysts their price dropped 16%. Fortunately, RIMM is in a stable financial position but investors are worried about them selling more lower margin phones and less higher margin phones. With a price drop that steep you would expect to see sentiment drop but it actually is turned up and is heading to become more bullish. Is this price drop simply an overreaction of the market? The highest rated Star Performers on the widget under the Accuracy tab are split in the directions they predicted for RIMM but 4-star and 3-star predictors all predicted up. I had originally predicted down on RIMM thinking their was no way they could recover from a drop that big but after looking at sentiment and the Star Performers predictions, I think I may go with the wisdom of the crowd and see how that plays out.

I really haven’t thought about Sirius XM (SIRI) a lot lately, mostly because of their lackluster performance after the merge of the two companies. But after seeing them on the Top 15 Companies that Might Not Survive 2009 list I wanted to take a look at where they are at. It was kinda hard to stay involved watching a company who’s price was literally a penny at one point. There are rumors Sirius XM is preparing to file bankruptcy (not surprised, these rumors surfaced in December) and speculation that a potential partnership deal could be in the pipeline with Echostar CEO Charles Ergen. If Sirius does file bankruptcy it will be a huge loss not only to shareholders but to CEO Mel Karmazin who invested $2.7million in Sirius. There are over 306 predictions right now on SIRI at PredictWallStreet! 59% of users think SIRI will close up. Sentiment is extremely bullish right now and has been for the past week. The highest rated predictors under the Accuracy tab have all predicted UP. So how is that with all this positive signals, the stock still managed to close down today 51%? Well, mostly likely because one giant negative signal most likely overshadowed these: Chapter 11. I guess the sayings true, big tree fall hard. Or something like that…I get my idioms confused as a result of a mother who used them every other sentence.

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Post Super Bowl Post…get it?

I always look forward to Super Bowl Sunday and I don’t even like football. I like the food and the drinks and the friends, not so much the game. There is something nice and oddly relieving about drinking and eating chip dip in the middle of the day, all day, and not feeling guilty about it at all. I loved Bruce Springsteen’s half time show as much as the next old guy, but I do miss those more scandalous, pop sensational acts pre-Janet Jackson’s wardrobe malfunction debacle.

The Dow closed below 8,000 this morning. Yikes! Tech shares were higher as industrials fell lower. The economic stimulus proposal is now in front of the Senate along with a plan to give more aids to banks. Also, negative numbers surfaced as more layoffs were reported and January looked even gloomier than before. The sentiment meter at PredictWallStreet showed mostly bearish sentiment for Nasdaq, Dow and SP 500.

Dell (DELL) is reported to be in the process of making their own smart phone prototypes right now, one with a touch screen and one with a keyboard. While other bloggers are posing this as competition to the iPhone, I hardly think so. Some of the major cell phone carriers have already tried that…and pretty unsuccessfully. I’m not sure how a DELL is going to approach this but I am curious to see it. If it looks anything like their laptops, we can expect something clunky and grey. The rumors did nothing for DELL today as they were down 2%. Sentiment is slowly becoming more bearish. Looking at the star performers on PredictWallStreet I can see the 3 and 2 star performers predicted UP. Since a lower star rating means these predictors were less consistent in their correct predictions, I can also look at this in a opposite way. If the lowest rated predictors are predicting UP, I may think it reasonable to predict DOWN, the opposite way they are predicting since they have been less accurate in their predictions.

Furthermore, checking up on my usual favorites (AAPL, RIMM, GOOG, etc.) I noticed I was doing a lot of down predicting. The market was just too bad today for me to feel any sort of optimism. But a diamond in the rough, I always feel there is potential in RIMM. A good article was posted here. Essentially, RIMM does indeed have potential, but you must know how to control the risk. RIMM has always been volatile and experiences fluctuations like crazy but if you’re smart and use a stop loss and price target, there could be some gain here. RIMM actually close up today, one of the few stocks that did. Contrarily, their sentiment is becoming more bearish. The 3 and 2 star predictors had predicted UP for RIMM so perhaps this people are becoming better affiliated with the stock. In my opionion, its always good to look at both sentiment and accuracy and whether or not there were predictions from 4 or 5 star rated predictors.

Hope ya’ll enjoyed your Super Bowl weekend, I’ll be seeing you at the gym.

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Testing strategies : RIMM

So this morning I checked My Page at PredictWallStreet to follow up on my prediction on Research in Motion (RIMM). I had made six predictions on Monday on various different companies I liked. The funny thing is I got all of them wrong except my prediction on Research in Motion! I had predicted the price would move up and it did. I will take a moment from patting myself on the back to realize that in actuality this could of been a lucky guess. So to gain more practice, I will predict on RIMM again today and see if I can be consistently right with my predictions. I’ve also made a few other predictions to even out the playing field. Ya know, in case RIMM and I’s relationship goes horribly awry I want to have some back up’s to lean on.

Looking at RIMM’s sentiment today I’ve noticed that it has turned downwards. Investors could be becoming more bearish about RIMM. Now normally I would think that the price would closely follow sentiment with a lag as price caught up. But looking at the one month sentiment chart and overlaying the price quote I noticed that RIMM’s price seems sorta random. There have been times in the beginning of the month that sentiment has peaked upwards but the price (blue line) has been downwards and never actually caught up. This tells me I need to do a little more research about RIMM. I looked at some recent news articles and it seems analysts are split down the middle on this one. Some think RIMM has a solid balance sheet while others think RIMM will not stand up to the competition of Apple. I have predicted down today for RIMM because sentiment seems to be falling and the price already is. Even if they have a good balance sheet, if investors aren’t optimistic about RIMM the price will probably fall. Lets check back later and see if this prediction was right.

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The Break Up: Apple and MacWorld

Here we go again with another Apple story…

Apple holds there MacWorld event every January and July. Investors and consumers eagerly await Steve Job’s keynote and the announcement of new products. This year, however, Jobs isn’t giving the keynote. And this January will be Apples last MacWorld event. What does it all mean? Speculation and rumors have took over the blogs and news this morning. We have the usual “Jobs is sick and stepping down from Apple”, that “Apple has no new products to announce” and is lessening expectations and the possible idea of a succession plan. Either way, AAPL stock took a 6 point hit this morning following the news and investors seems wary of the recent rumors. Apple has a history of disclosing very little information regarding Jobs. Why the leave so much gray area up for interpretation, I’m not so sure. In the past such rumors have proved favorable for the company as bloggers speculated new Macbooks and iPods and the stock steadily shot up on the buzz. But whenever a possibility arises to prob Job’s health, you can bet the stock will drop at least minimally.

Of course I wanted to see how this news was affecting investor sentiment. I went to PredictWallStreet to make my eh hem down prediction and checked one month sentiment. While yesterday sentiment has began to flat line after being bearish for some time, I can see that sentiment has slightly taken a downturn and looks like it’s heading to become bearish once again. Knowing this, I can assume the price will drag down with it (its already down 6% today). I do not know how long such news will effect AAPL but I would assume that unless some other positive story comes out to shock sentiment to become more optimistic, AAPL will most likely suffer. Now AAPL being the sensitive stock it is doesn’t take much to shift so I always find it important to stay on top of their press releases; as you can see they are in the news almost every single day. This may be a good time for the shorts but it will most likely be short-lived. I like Apple to much and if I did indeed own this stock I would hold onto it for the long run as it’s fluctuations are normally temporary. Of course, I am not an investment adviser nor do I even own AAPL. Always take to your investment adviser before making any investing decisions.

Research in Motion (RIMM) has been forecasted to close up today. Research in Motion has also been rumored to be launching products in China which will be a tremendous boost to sales and market share. As the traditional headset market dies out, smartphones are taking over. With the rocky launch of the Storm behind them, I think RIMM is setting them self up as a fundamentally sound company and ready to take on 2009. They continue to launch new products (Storm, Bold, new BlackBerry Curve 8900, and the Pearl Flip) positioning them to be a strong competitor with the ability to be a leader in the smartphone market. Sentiment for RIMM is becoming bullish-clearly investors have confidence in this company.

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Crash & burn and other synonyms for Wall Street: AAPL, RIMM, FSLR

Wall Street took another dip this morning as investors continue to be frightened by diminishing spending and a weakening economy. Wait, this sounds exactly like every other post I write. Could it be because every day Wall Street is a bust because of the “economic turn down”? Could it be because everyday consumers haven’t started to spend more money? I’m taking bets. Two years till I get to write Wall Street is having a spectacular day? 1 year?

While yesterday sentiment for the major indices was notably bullish, today they have dramatically fallen. Sentiment for the DJIA, NASDAQ, and SP500 has become bearish, with DJIA sentiment almost off the graph. You can check out updated sentiment here on the front page of PredictWallStreet.

There are some good forecasts today on popular companies I like. Ironically, both Apple and Research in Motion have forecasts, as well as First Solar, Inc. and Citigroup. Go check out the rest here.

Apple (AAPL) is forecasted today to close up. Between cutting back on iPhone production and decreasing revenue from iPod sales, investors have had many concerns about the company lately. Fortunately decreasing iPod sales, one of Apple’s biggest revenue channels, has proved to not effect the company that directly as sales from iTunes, iPhones and Macbooks have made up for the lack. Analyst reports have become increasingly bearish for Apple, but blogger’s believe Apple earnings in January could beat expectations. Sentiment for AAPL has been bearish but took a turn upwards. They’re are 128 predictions on Apple right now. Of those, 48% predicted Apple up. It’s a close call right now. I think it’s no secret anymore that Apple will continue to be one of the strongest players in our recent economic game and that Apple is clearly a great long term buy. Although this is no recommendation because I am by no means an adviser or professional. Just my opinion.

And on the other side of the cell phone maker rail road tracks, we have Research in Motion (RIMM). RIMM is forecasted to also close up today. RIMM has been dangling the Storm in front of consumers with cryptic commercials and no release date in sight. Finally bloggers around the internetsphere have agreed that November 14 or 16th will be the release date, although this has not been confirmed by Research in Motion. In my opinion, they need to get this phone out before the holidays if they have any prayer of competing with Apple on any level. While the Storm may not trump the iPhone, it will at least give RIMM something new for the holidays to boast. Checking one month sentiment, you can see RIMM has actually had pretty strong sentiment with only a recent bearish dip. It is now becoming more bullish most likely in anticipation for the holidays and the Storm release. 62% of predictors have predicted up for RIMM. I have predicted up as well.

And lastly, First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is also forecasted to close up today. As the leader in its industry, FSLR is able to fund its own projects without outside funds and with a Democratic White House and Congress, we are sure to see a push in alternative energy in the coming years. FSLR’s price has dramatically dropped since the beginning of the summer but I don’t believe this to be any indication of the company’s performance. One month sentiment is currently heading up and I remain bullish about FSLR and have predicted up along with the other 60% of predictors who also predicted up on PredictWallStreet.

If you are one of the lucky few to have Veteran’s day off, enjoy it. Thankfully I at least have no class today which just leaves more time for me to study for my midterm on Wednesday. It’s a never ending cycle. Good day!

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Recipe for Disaster

Is this a joke? I cant tell if Colonel Sanders is pulling one over on the general public. KFC recently reported to be moving there ultra top secret Original Recipe for the first time in 76 years and has hired top security to guard the precious cargo. Going so far as to have the briefcase its being transported in handcuffed to a trusted individual. I mean this is some serious business here. So the question is who exactly is trying to steal this recipe? Evil arch nemesis Popeyes? I have to give it to them for creating a clever publicity stunt however.

I went to sign onto my account this morning at PredictWallStreet.com and noticed that they have published 8 forecasts scrolling across the top of the page! The forecasts are the creme de la creme of information on the website because they are proven to be more accurate. So checking out the forecast page I can see that General Electric (GE) is forecasted to close up today and Research in Motion (RIMM) is forecasted to close down. I actually sold the shares I had of both these companies a few weeks back, but if I still had an interest in buying RIMM I would know to wait until either tomorrow morning or the end of the day to get it at a cheaper price. And if I was thinking about selling my GE shares this morning I would know to hold out a little bit longer so I could sell my shares when it closes up today and get the maximum profit. Now these forecasts aren’t 100%, but then again what is in Wall Street? However, they are extremely useful tools and can really help in guiding me in my investing decisions. I like them because they are straightforward. The price of this is either gonna be more or less. Thats it. And then I can make my own free will decision with that information. No analysis, no staring at a chart, just simple raw facts.

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Straight to the head

Dear Chad Elkim from North Carolina,

I would absolutely love to watch the PayPer view movies with you that you purchased on my credit card. I could bring the popcorn, you could bring the Raisinets. But unfortunately I don’t live in North Carolina. I don’t even live in South Carolina or anywhere on the East Coast. In fact, I live almost clear across country from you. So I appreciate the cordial invite, but I’d rather you stop pretending to be a 20 year old girl from California and refrain from making fraudulent charges on my cute puppy and kitten expressions credit card. Best of luck in your criminal lifestyle.

Love always,

Kristy

Identify theft sucks, man. I got to use my bluetooth headset this morning though. An overwhelming sense of power swarmed over me. I noticed myself involuntarily yelling at the women on the other end. I quickly apologized explaining I was afraid she couldn’t hear me, but I knew deep down inside it was because that headset gave me a false sense of authority like I neva eva had before. Dangerous device…

Speaking of headsets, Research in Motion headset sales fell this second quarter because of the tightening economy. Like, duh. By raising the general average price, they were able to lose less in sales in dollars.

Price shot up at the beginning of August, most likely due to an influx of law abiding customers buying headsets. Now that the initial wave of consumers have there bluetooths, combined with the weakening economy, sales have dropped for RIMM. You can see that even when sentiment fell, the price remained high telling me that perhaps consumers were undervaluing and feeling particularly pessimistic about Research in Motion. Recognizing this contrasting situation is helpful in timing opportunities. However, while Apple’s iPhone remains the tyrannic leader of smarthphones, RIM’s Blackberry remains the leader in enterprise and corporate market and is not to be overlooked. In a tempestuous market like today, long term investments may emerge as winners. Tried and true stocks with worldwide exposure, like RIMM, may be perfect for the defensive portfolio when the market is experiencing such roller coaster dips.

I predicted SIRI would close down today but so far price is up. Yikes! I’ll check back tomorrow to see what it closed at today…

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